arXiv:2606. 29878v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predictive models are increasingly embedded in operational decision-making, yet standard explanation methods typically explain forecasts rather than the decisions those forecasts induce.
Predictive models are increasingly embedded in operational decision-making, yet standard explanation methods typically explain forecasts rather than the decisions those forecasts induce. This distinction is important in predict-then-optimize systems: large forecast changes may leave the optimizer's action unchanged, while small changes can alter the selected decision and its realized value.
arXiv:2607. 02206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predictions are increasingly used to guide high-stakes decisions, from treatment selection to policy making.
arXiv:2608. 00832v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Structured plan-generation agents are often evaluated as if a plan has quality in isolation, yet many realistic planning tasks require asking how a candidate behaves when another agent can search for responses.
arXiv:2608. 05256v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pre-commitment posture, the assignment of military assets to theater locations before conflict scenarios resolve, is a critical and formally unsolved problem in joint operational planning.
arXiv:2607. 14271v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Feature-attribution methods are central to explainable artificial intelligence.
arXiv:2607. 10972v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many evaluations of model outputs rely either on contracts checkable at evaluation time or on feedback that arrives within the operating loop.
arXiv:2606. 02198v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prediction tasks over individual futures, which are inherently noisy, often admit multiple similarly accurate models.
arXiv:2606. 07308v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study off-policy evaluation (OPE) under strategic behavior where decision subjects (or agents) respond to a decision maker's policy by strategically modifying their covariates.
arXiv:2606. 07846v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLM-agent workflows chain model calls and tool invocations, and spend most of their wall-clock time waiting on upstream operations before downstream ones can start.
arXiv:2608. 04265v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Evaluations of LLM planning agents largely ask whether a task succeeds or a declared plan is followed.
Many evaluations of model outputs rely either on contracts checkable at evaluation time or on feedback that arrives within the operating loop. We study the complementary setting in which ground truth is delayed, censored, or private, so deterministic code cannot check correctness at scoring time and must instead issue a code-owned provisional forecast.
arXiv:2606. 04342v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-step time series forecasting (MSF) is commonly evaluated using point-wise error metrics such as mean squared error (MSE), implicitly treating the conditional mean as a sufficient target.