arXiv Machine Learning

An Introduction to Bayesian and Frequentist Simulation-Based Inference with Machine Learning

arXiv:2607. 21702v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Simulation-based inference (SBI) with machine learning is an increasingly important tool for solving inverse problems in science and engineering, including parameter inference and the inversion of detector effects.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 27

Simulation-Based Empirical Bayes

arXiv:2607. 21843v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Empirical Bayes (EB) performs simultaneous inference across many related latent variables.

By Xinwei Shen, Diana Cai, Cheng Zhang, David M. Blei
arXiv Machine Learning
5d ago

Mixed neural posterior estimation for simulators with discrete and continuous parameters

The paper extends Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) to handle simulators whose parameter spaces contain both discrete and continuous dimensions. It introduces an inference network that factorizes the joint posterior into discrete and continuous components, using an autoregressive classifier for the discrete part and a generative model for the continuous part, trained jointly with a single simulation-based objective. A diagnostic tool for assessing calibration of the mixed posterior is also proposed, and the method is shown to produce accurate, calibrated posteriors on toy and real scientific simulators.

By Jan Boelts, Cornelius Schr\"oder, Jonas Beck, Jakob H. Macke, Michael Deistler, Daniel Gedon
arXiv Statistics ML
Sep 21

Neural composite likelihood estimation: simulation based inference for time series

Neural Composite Likelihood Estimation (NCLE) extends simulation‑based inference to high‑dimensional time series by partitioning long sequences into equal‑sized batches. For each batch, a neural network estimates the likelihood via conditional density estimation, and the product of these batch likelihoods forms an approximate composite likelihood. Frequentist inference is then performed by maximizing this composite likelihood to obtain a point estimate and by estimating the Godambe information matrix to derive confidence intervals.

By Grace Yan, Mark Beaumont, Dennis Prangle
arXiv AI
3d ago

BayesNDE: Bayesian Generative Modeling for Neural Density Estimation

BayesNDE is a neural density estimator that uses Bayesian generative modeling to estimate densities without relying on invertible networks or Jacobian-determinant calculations. It constructs an adaptive proposal for each observation by inferring a sample-specific latent posterior, and then applies bridge sampling to combine proposal samples with separate posterior samples for density estimation. Experiments on synthetic datasets show improved density estimation and structure recovery, while real-world applications demonstrate better anomaly detection.

By Chenglin Li, Qiao Liu
arXiv Machine Learning
4d ago

High-Dimensional Simulation-Based Inference in Latent Spaces

arXiv:2609.37381v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural simulation-based inference (SBI) has been widely successful in inferring a relatively small number of interpretable parameters from potentially...

By Lars K\"uhmichel, Stefan T. Radev, Bhanu Prasanna Koppolu, Masoumeh Davoudi, Jerry M. Huang, Paul-Christian B\"urkner