The paper presents a framework called SNPE‑TTT for adapting pre‑trained neural posterior estimators, specifically conditional normalizing flows, to new inference tasks in agent‑based models (ABMs). It explores four adaptation strategies—full‑parameter adaptation, low‑rank adaptation, and two gradient‑based update spaces—and evaluates them on economic simulation models with both tractable and intractable likelihoods. Results show that the framework can improve posterior recovery with a limited number of target simulations, though performance varies by task and adaptation method.
By Junyao Zhang, Jinglai Li, Junqi Tang
Neural Composite Likelihood Estimation (NCLE) extends simulation‑based inference to high‑dimensional time series by partitioning long sequences into equal‑sized batches. For each batch, a neural network estimates the likelihood via conditional density estimation, and the product of these batch likelihoods forms an approximate composite likelihood. Frequentist inference is then performed by maximizing this composite likelihood to obtain a point estimate and by estimating the Godambe information matrix to derive confidence intervals.
By Grace Yan, Mark Beaumont, Dennis Prangle
The paper extends Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) to handle simulators whose parameter spaces contain both discrete and continuous dimensions. It introduces an inference network that factorizes the joint posterior into discrete and continuous components, using an autoregressive classifier for the discrete part and a generative model for the continuous part, trained jointly with a single simulation-based objective. A diagnostic tool for assessing calibration of the mixed posterior is also proposed, and the method is shown to produce accurate, calibrated posteriors on toy and real scientific simulators.
By Jan Boelts, Cornelius Schr\"oder, Jonas Beck, Jakob H. Macke, Michael Deistler, Daniel Gedon
arXiv:2603. 24705v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Discrete choice models are fundamental tools in management science, economics, and marketing for understanding and predicting decision-making.
By Easton Huch, Michael Keane
arXiv:2512. 20685v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Diffusion models have recently emerged as powerful learners for simulation-based inference (SBI), enabling fast and accurate estimation of latent parameters from simulated and real data.
By Jonas Arruda, Niels Bracher, Ullrich K\"othe, Jan Hasenauer, Stefan T. Radev
arXiv:2207. 12877v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Motivated by the successes of deep learning, we propose a class of neural network-based discrete choice models, called RUMnets, inspired by the random utility maximization (RUM) framework.
By Ali Aouad, Antoine D\'esir
arXiv:2607. 21702v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Simulation-based inference (SBI) with machine learning is an increasingly important tool for solving inverse problems in science and engineering, including parameter inference and the inversion of detector effects.
By Maximilian Dax, Theo Heimel, Gilles Louppe
arXiv:2601. 07944v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Since the turn of the century, approximate Bayesian inference has steadily evolved as new computational techniques have been incorporated to handle increasingly complex, large-scale predictive problems.
By Roy Shivam Ram Shreshtth, Arnab Hazra, Gourab Mukherjee
arXiv:2609.37381v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Neural simulation-based inference (SBI) has been widely successful in inferring a relatively small number of interpretable parameters from potentially...
By Lars K\"uhmichel, Stefan T. Radev, Bhanu Prasanna Koppolu, Masoumeh Davoudi, Jerry M. Huang, Paul-Christian B\"urkner
The paper introduces Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a new Bayesian inference technique for simulator models where the likelihood is intractable but simulation is easy. CPE uses flow matching to approximate the posterior while embedding the model’s conditional dependencies directly into the neural network architecture. Experiments show that this hard‑coded structure yields highly accurate inference, matching or surpassing current state‑of‑the‑art methods.
By Simon Dirmeier, Antonietta Mira
arXiv:2608. 03566v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The drift diffusion model (DDM) is a cornerstone of cognitive decision-making research.
By Yufei Wu, Shanqing Gao, Andreas Voss, Francis Tuerlinckx
arXiv:2606. 27711v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce a neural network-based framework for learning time series estimators through a process we term decision-theoretic pretraining.
By Pablo Montero-Manso, Marcel Scharth