arXiv Machine Learning

Diagrams-to-Dynamics (D2D): Exploring Causal Loop Diagram Leverage Points under Uncertainty

arXiv:2508. 05659v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Background: Causal loop diagrams (CLDs) are widely used in health and environmental research to represent hypothesized causal structures underlying complex problems.

arXiv AI
Jul 8

From Graphs to Gradients: Physics-Inspired Structural Attribution for Cyber-Physical IoT Systems and Beyond

arXiv:2607. 05563v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Interpretable explanation methods in Artificial Intelligence aim to uncover the underlying causes and their effects, enabling a deeper understanding of why a system behaves in a certain way under different inputs.

By Spyridon Evangelatos, Christos Diou, Georgios Th. Papadopoulos, Evangelos Markakis, Panagiotis Sarigiannidis
arXiv Machine Learning
2d ago

CIDER-FM: Foundation Models for Causal Inference from Diverse Experimental Regimes

CIDER-FM is a causal foundation model that combines finite observational data with surrogate-interventional datasets to predict target conditional interventional distributions more accurately than using observational data alone. It employs an intervention-aware representation and hierarchical three‑axis attention to integrate information across variables, samples, and experimental regimes. Experiments on synthetic graphs, simulated data, and real‑world Causal Chambers data show that incorporating experimental context improves CID prediction performance.

By Yuche Gao, Arik Reuter, Siyuan Guo, Anish Dhir, Bernhard Sch\"olkopf, Adrian Weller
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 30

FinInvest-GTCN: Explainable Graph-Temporal-Causal Modeling for Risk-Aware Investment Decision Optimization

arXiv:2606. 28933v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Venture capital (VC) investment decisions face distinct challenges, such as multi-source heterogeneous data, non-stationary time series, and the demand for explainable predictions in high-stakes, low-data settings.

By Junyan Tan, Yifan Li, Minghao Wang, Zihan Chen, Haoyu Zhang