CausalArena is a new benchmark designed to evaluate causal discovery methods in the era of foundation models. It unifies synthetic structural causal models (SCMs), semantically grounded SCMs, and formula‑grounded SCMs, while also including real‑world datasets for external validation. Experiments show that performance rankings vary widely across different SCM families and protocols, indicating that strong results on one benchmark do not necessarily transfer to others.
By Zi-Rong Li, Si-Yang Liu, Tian-Zuo Wang, Han-Jia Ye
CausalArena is a unified, evolvable benchmark designed to evaluate causal discovery methods across diverse structural causal models (SCMs). It incorporates synthetic SCMs for controlled structural variation, semantic operational SCMs for human-auditable environments, and formula-grounded SCMs to test discovery under explicit scientific mechanisms, along with real-world datasets for external validity. Experiments show that performance rankings vary significantly across SCM families and protocols, indicating that strong results on one benchmark do not generalize to others, especially in the context of causal discovery foundation models.
arXiv:2607. 11816v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal discovery algorithms learn a network that describes the causal dependencies among random variables.
By Bijan Mazaheri, Jiaqi Zhang, Caroline Uhler
arXiv:2608. 20187v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Practitioners inferring causality from observational data usually rely on a single method and treat its output as causal truth.
By Manish Gupta, Dipanjan De
The paper presents RCBNB-MB, a causal discovery algorithm that relaxes the assumption of a single, time‑consistent causal structure in time series. It identifies latent causal regimes—subsets of time points where a stable causal graph holds—and iteratively segments the series to recover both regime transitions and the corresponding causal graphs using Markov blankets. The authors provide theoretical guarantees and demonstrate through simulations and real IT monitoring data that RCBNB-MB outperforms baseline methods in detecting regime changes and their causal structures.
By Lei Zan, Charles K. Assaad, Emilie Devijver, Eric Gaussier
arXiv:2607. 27263v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Most benchmarks for causal inference over time series are observational, small, or domain-specific, leaving interventional and counterfactual estimation under-served exactly where it matters most, such as in healthcare, policy evaluation, and climate science.
By Dennis Thumm, Billy Tim Anthony, Ying Chen
We describe Causal-TS, an open-source Python library for causal discovery in high-dimensional and nonstationary multivariate time series. Causal-TS provides four specialized algorithms-CDNOTS, CDNOTS+, CEDAR, and GRACE-along with wrappers for GES, Granger, LASSO-VAR, and LGES, all sharing a unified conditional independence (CI) test layer with GPU acceleration via PyTorch.
arXiv:2607. 18226v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal discovery methods have shown strong performance in temporal systems, but they typically rely on regular and discrete lag structures, limiting their applicability to regularly sampled data.
By Martim Penim, Ricardo Ribeiro Pereira, Jacopo Bono, Hugo Ferreira, M\'ario A. T. Figueiredo, Pedro Bizarro
arXiv:2603. 20980v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time-varying causal models provide a powerful framework for studying dynamic scientific systems, yet most existing approaches assume that the underlying causal network is known a priori - an assumption rarely satisfied in real-world domains where causal structure is uncertain, evolving, or only indirectly observable.
By Dmitry Zaytsev, Valentina Kuskova, Michael Coppedge
arXiv:2609.31315v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Unobserved common causes are pervasive in real-world time series and can induce spurious associations that causal discovery methods mistake for direc...
By Mohammad Fesanghary
arXiv:2607. 24673v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We describe Causal-TS, an open-source Python library for causal discovery in high-dimensional and nonstationary multivariate time series.
By Mohammad Fesanghary
arXiv:2608. 03868v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal Discovery (CD) from observational data faces two fundamental challenges.
By Abhinav Thorat, Ravi Kumar Kolla, Vishak K Bhat, Harsh Vardhan Singh Chauhan, Niranjan Pedanekar