arXiv:2608. 00675v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Autoregressive models accumulate error over long rollouts, yet at deployment there is no ground truth to measure it against.
arXiv:2607. 04919v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deploying a time series foundation model requires GPU infrastructure, engineering overhead, and carries no guarantee of improvement over XGBoost.
arXiv:2607. 29135v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Neural operators provide fast surrogates for time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) by applying a learned evolution operator recursively to its own predictions, but this autoregressive rollout feeds every prediction error back as input, so local errors accumulate.
arXiv:2609.36521v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Physical-field reconstruction and forecasting depend on both measurement density and spatial layout, yet evaluation under a single observation pattern...
arXiv:2607. 05450v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper explores the "Granularity Paradox" in time-series forecasting, wherein finer temporal disaggregation (e.
arXiv:2609.06008v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present Cadence, an error-bounded lossy compressor for numeric time series pairing a 330M-parameter time-series foundation model (Google TimesFM-3...
The paper introduces the Latent Generative Solver (LGS), a neural PDE solver that combines a Physics VAE, a Pyramidal Flow-Forcing Transformer, and input noising to achieve generalization across twelve PDE families and stable long-term rollouts. LGS matches or surpasses deterministic baselines on one-step predictions, outperforms them on 5- and 10-step rollouts, and significantly reduces long-horizon error while cutting compute costs. It also adapts efficiently to unseen higher-resolution systems, demonstrating strong empirical performance on 2D regular-grid PDE simulations.
arXiv:2608. 07420v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: World models are expected to support imagination over extended temporal horizons, yet most are still trained through local few-step prediction objectives and deployed by recursively rolling out their own predictions.
arXiv:2606. 08578v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recently, large time series models (LTSMs) have gained increasing attention due to their similarities to large language models, including flexible context length, scalability, and task generality, outperforming advanced task-specific models.
Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons. Errors accumulate over long autoregressive rollouts, systematic biases grow with lead time, and several years of data must be held out for independent verification, even though machine-learning models otherwise benefit from longer training records.
arXiv:2609. 20193v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Retrieval plug-ins supply a deep forecaster with information its lookback window cannot carry.
The paper investigates why latent neural surrogate solvers, which compress physical system dynamics into a lower‑dimensional space, often fail during long‑horizon autoregressive rollouts. It demonstrates that training the latent representation only for reconstruction leads to instability, and proposes a set of training interventions—Koopman operator learning, Hamming noise injection, and multi‑step rollout fine‑tuning—that align the latent space with long‑horizon forecasting. These interventions reduce long‑rollout error by about 40 % and achieve accuracy comparable to full‑resolution models while using far fewer floating‑point operations and GPU memory, enabling stable extrapolation in mesoscale crystal‑plasticity simulations of high‑cycle fatigue.