The paper presents Laxmi, a retrained version of the AIFS weather model that uses satellite-based precipitation observations instead of ERA5 reanalysis data. Laxmi achieves a 19% improvement in global probabilistic accuracy, reduces drizzle overprediction by 33%, and boosts the 95th percentile Brier skill score by 57%. In a case study of 10 Indian tropical storms, Laxmi accurately forecasted 150 mm event-total precipitation in 7 events, outperforming both the original AIFS and the leading physical model IFS.
By Julian F. Schmitt, Bertrand Delorme, Robert C. King, Yashica Patodia, Tapio Schneider, Aditi Sheshadri, Ravi Jain
The paper introduces Nested‑EAGLE, a 0.25° global weather model with a 6 km refinement over the contiguous United States, designed to merge short‑ and medium‑range forecasts into a single system. It shows lower mean‑squared error for near‑surface and low‑level variables over the U.S. compared to NOAA’s GFS and HRRR, while remaining competitive globally. Although precipitation forecasts are less skillful than HRRR’s deterministic training, Nested‑EAGLE delivers the most accurate storm‑location predictions at longer lead times, with blurred extrema.
By Timothy A. Smith, Mariah Pope, Sergey Frolov, Brett Basarab, Daniel Abdi, Paul Madden, Isidora Jankov
arXiv:2608.12685v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: An ``Attention Residual U-Net'' method is described for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting (PQPF) that predicts the hourly...
By Thomas M Hamill
arXiv:2510. 20769v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate medium-range precipitation forecasting is essential for hydrometeorological risk management but remains challenging for both numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems and data-driven models.
By Tianyi Xiong, Haonan Chen, Kelly Mahoney, Jingyin Tang, Tim Smith, Janice Bytheway
arXiv:2608. 06241v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Existing machine-learning weather forecasting models rely on predetermined and fixed autoregressive timesteps.
By Sam Levang, Fran Bartolic, Ty Dickinson, Chase Dwelle, Paulius Rauba, Viktor Cikojevic
arXiv:2605.24038v3 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Aurora visibility at a given location requires two physically distinct conditions to hold at once: aurora occurring overhead, governed by sol...
By Zongyuan Ge, Chenwaner Zhang, Haoyang Li, Hantai Zhang, Wei Zhou, Wenxin Gu, Zhaoming Wang
arXiv:2606. 08563v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While global data-driven models excel at predicting continuous atmospheric variables, three-dimensional hydrometeor forecasting remains challenging due to the zero-inflated, long-tailed distributions of these variables.
By Dandan Chen, Yaqiang Wang
arXiv:2606. 26421v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: State-of-the-art medium-range AI weather models can outperform traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) but require massive training budgets.
By Cristiana Diaconu, Jonas Scholz, Aliaksandra Shysheya, Stratis Markou, Payel Mukhopadhyay, Miles Cranmer, Richard E. Turner
The paper introduces CloudCast v2, a machine‑learning model that forecasts 12‑hour cloud‑cover from satellite‑derived initial conditions. Trained first on the Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis to learn cloud‑evolution dynamics, it is then adapted to real satellite data using conditional flow matching, a generative technique that conditions noise on observed cloud fields and NWP inputs. CloudCast v2 achieves a 10 % reduction in mean absolute error compared to its predecessor and surpasses it in spatial skill after 3–6 hours, extending useful forecasting beyond the typical 1–3‑hour nowcasting window while preserving satellite‑level spatial detail.
By Mikko Partio, Leila Hieta, Ossi Laine
arXiv:2605. 16163v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Skillful medium-range precipitation forecasting at kilometer scale remains challenging over complex terrain because precipitation arises from multiscale nonlinear processes that global models cannot explicitly resolve at affordable cost.
By Dan Assouline, Erwan Koch, Federico Amato, Filippo Quarenghi, Daniele Nerini, Thibaut Loiseau, Kyle van de Langemheen, Tom Beucler
State-of-the-art medium-range AI weather models can outperform traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) but require massive training budgets. This restricts usage for under-resourced groups and severely limits fast model iteration.
WeatherNext 3 is a new AI‑driven global weather model that improves both spatial and temporal resolution by generating hourly forecasts at 0.1° resolution, matching the best physics‑based models. It incorporates low‑latency geostationary satellite data and learns to predict satellite‑derived precipitation, tropical cyclones, and station observations, enabling 2 m temperature and dewpoint predictions anywhere and anytime. By directly using raw observations instead of relying solely on analysis data, WeatherNext 3 sets a new state‑of‑the‑art for probabilistic medium‑range forecasting skill.
By Stephan Rasp, Boris Babenko, Dominic Masters, Andrew El-Kadi, Samier Merchant, Guy Shalev, Ilan Price, Fred Zyda, Remi Lam, Sasha Shysheya, Matthew Willson, Stratis Markou, Shreya Agrawal, Suhani Vora, Mohammed Alewi Hassen, Sunny Mak, Tom R. Andersson, Megan Bela, Akib Uddin, Nofar Peled Levi, Ben Gaiarin, Ferran Alet, Aaron Bell, Peter Battaglia, Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez