arXiv AI

HSPR: Recovering Software-Agent Benchmark Scores via Hierarchical Posterior Inference

arXiv AI
Oct 2

Agent Evaluation Reliability: More Tasks Won't (Always) Fix An Agent Leaderboard

Agent evaluations increasingly benchmark LLMs, but rankings can be swayed by evaluation conditions such as scaffolds or tasks, making reliability claim‑dependent. A Bayesian variance‑decomposition framework applied to 22 benchmarks shows that reliability varies with the measurement goal: fixed model‑scaffold systems rank reliably, while underlying‑model rankings are less stable. Scaffold choice can alter conclusions, and adding more tasks only modestly improves reliability when scaffold coverage is limited; however, pooling diverse benchmarks can substantially raise cross‑task ranking reliability and reduce cost.

By Michael Hardy, Ruhana Azam, Anka Reuel, Mykel Kochenderfer, Sanmi Koyejo
arXiv AI
Jul 21

Agent psychometrics: Task-level performance prediction in agentic coding benchmarks

arXiv:2604. 00594v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: As the focus in LLM-based coding shifts from static single-step code generation to multi-step agentic interaction with tools and environments, understanding which tasks will challenge agents and why becomes increasingly difficult.

By Chris Ge, Daria Kryvosheieva, Daniel Fried, Uzay Girit, Kaivalya Hariharan
arXiv AI
Sep 25

Speculative Evaluation of Stochastic LLMs

The paper introduces Speculative Evaluation, a method to reduce variance in evaluating stochastic large language models (LLMs) under a fixed rollout budget. It employs a Hierarchical Bayesian Neyman (HBN) policy that first runs a short uniform pilot, then pools task-level success counts via a hierarchical Bayesian model to compute posterior expectations of task-level sampling variances. Using these expectations, the method applies exact positive-integer Neyman allocation to allocate rollouts, and an asynchronous variant (HBN-async) speculatively executes continuations from partial pilot feedback to mitigate synchronization overhead. Across six checkpoints and 18 benchmark groups, Speculative Evaluation achieves 12.8%-33.6% lower variance compared to uniform allocation, outperforming empirical and independent Bayesian baselines, and demonstrates practical benefits in real-generation experiments.

By Qianli Shen, Xiang Li, Ruomeng Ding, Yanxi Chen, Daoyuan Chen, Yaliang Li
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

Strategy Accumulation and Guided Execution for Automated LLM Fine-Tuning

The paper introduces Strategy Accumulation and Guided Execution (SAGE), a two-stage framework that makes automated fine-tuning of large language models cumulative. In the first stage, a multi-agent pipeline uses Monte Carlo Tree Search to explore training strategies while a Distillation Agent records task-specific insights and cross-task confidence scores into a structured repository. In the second stage, SAGE retrieves relevant experience from this repository to guide training on new tasks, achieving a 12.4‑percentage‑point improvement over a baseline pipeline without accumulated experience on nine unseen tasks.

By Haoran Zhao, Wei Du, Dingwen Yang, Jixuan Huang, Junlin Shang, Lingyong Fang, Ya Guo, Tao Gui, Qi Zhang, Xuanjing Huang
arXiv AI
Sep 21

Balance of Benchmarks: Semantic Density Reweighting for Task-Conditioned Model Comparison

The paper introduces Balance of Benchmarks (BoB), a framework that improves task-conditioned model comparison by weighting benchmark evidence based on semantic density, equating scores across varying difficulty levels, and pooling task-relevant residuals. BoB retains all eligible benchmark data while adjusting its influence, outperforming uniform averaging on the WildScores dataset with higher Spearman correlation, lower MAE, and better shortlist hit rates. The method also reduces ranking instability when benchmarks are repeated or paraphrased, and lowers retrospective regret in model selection.

By Jhen-Ke Lin, Hong-Yun Lin
arXiv AI
Sep 18

Prediction-Powered Smoothing and Validation for Disaggregated AI Evaluation

The paper introduces prediction‑powered smoothing (PP‑S) and its taxonomy‑aware extension (PP‑TS) to improve point and interval estimates of domain‑specific AI performance when only a limited sample of labeled units is available. It also proposes a new design‑based cross‑validation score that is approximately unbiased for selecting between direct and smoothed estimators. Experiments on a curated benchmark and real‑world agent traffic show that the proposed methods outperform direct estimators in both accuracy and coverage, and that the new score matches the performance of an independent validation sample while providing more precise error estimates.

By Sho Kawano, Zehang Richard Li, Paul A. Parker
arXiv AI
Oct 15

Long-Horizon-Terminal-Bench 2.0: Automating Diverse Task Construction and Measuring Sustained Agent Progress

arXiv:2610.14146v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-horizon terminal benchmarks measure whether an agent can sustain progress through extended workflows with process rewards, not only whether its fi...

By Zongxia Li, Zhongzhi Li, Yucheng Shi, Ruhan Wang, Junyao Yang, Chengsong Huang, Zhichao Liu, Xiyang Wu, Anhao Li, Yue Yu, Ergan Shang, Fuxiao Liu, Tong Zheng, Ninghao Liu, Lichao Sun, Haitao Mi, Leowei Liang