OrthoGen introduces a generative orthogonal learner for estimating conditional distributional potential outcomes (CDPOs) under time‑varying treatments, addressing challenges of time‑varying confounding. It combines a generative recursive g‑computation adjustment strategy with Neyman‑orthogonal, doubly robust learning, achieving rate double robustness and quasi‑oracle efficiency. The method is flexible, supporting various generative backbones, and demonstrates strong performance on synthetic, semi‑synthetic, and real‑world datasets.
arXiv:2604. 00915v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Estimation of heterogeneous long-term treatment effects (HLTEs) is relevant for personalized decision-making in marketing, economics, and medicine, where short-term observational datasets are often combined with long-term observational datasets.
The paper introduces the transport Neural Tangent Kernel (tNTK) to enable active learning for conditional generative models that produce distributional outputs. By decomposing the Wasserstein test risk into mean and shape components, the authors show that mean‑based active learning misses distributional shape, and propose tNTK as a tractable kernel that captures sensitivity of the predicted distribution to model parameters. Using tNTK as a Gaussian process covariance, they greedily select inputs that minimize posterior variance, and demonstrate that this distribution‑aware strategy outperforms mean‑based NTK baselines across several generative model types and datasets.
ProximalFM is a transformer‑based model that uses prior‑data fitted networks (PFNs) to perform Bayesian proximal causal inference under hidden confounding. By training on synthetic data generated from structural causal models with oracle counterfactuals, it amortizes the Bayesian operator inversion into a single forward pass, producing posterior estimates of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). The approach consistently outperforms prior methods across various proximal regimes, especially when latent confounding is strong and proxy variables are weakly informative, and it requires no dataset‑specific tuning.
arXiv:2606. 31184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Adaptive experiments for average treatment effects (ATE) require randomized allocations balancing valid inference with statistical efficiency.
arXiv:2609.06294v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) enables efficient targeting of interventions, but many applications have limited experimental s...
arXiv:2601. 08379v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Pre-trained diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative priors for both unconditional and conditional sample generation, yet their outputs often deviate from the characteristics of user-specific target data.
arXiv:2503.17894v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We propose a generative learner for estimating conditional average treatment effects and characterizing the full distribution of these effect...
arXiv:2611.08077v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a doubly-robust method to estimate the causal effects of multi-valued treatment regimes on patient outcomes. A multi-valued treatment regi...
arXiv:2502. 18049v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent studies identified an intriguing phenomenon in recursive generative model training known as model collapse, where models trained on data generated by previous models exhibit severe performance degradation.
ACTIVA is a transformer‑based conditional variational autoencoder designed to estimate full interventional distributions from observational data without requiring interventional data, a causal graph, or per‑task fitting. It learns a conditional latent prior that amortizes causal knowledge across diverse training tasks, enabling a single forward pass to handle new causal models drawn from the training distribution. Empirical results on synthetic and biologically realistic gene‑expression simulations show that ACTIVA outperforms correlational baselines, reduces spurious non‑descendant effects, and matches strong amortized baselines, while also validating its theoretical mixture‑of‑distributions property on observationally equivalent models.
arXiv:2606. 25882v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: DGPs are probabilistic models with remarkable prediction performance that concatenate GPs across several layers.
The paper introduces a doubly robust framework for distributionally robust offline contextual pricing, addressing challenges of distributional shifts and continuous actions. It proposes a localized DR estimator that is computationally efficient and semiparametrically optimal, and a learning algorithm that exploits demand noise smoothness to achieve finite‑sample regret bounds of τ^{-σ/(2σ+1)} for smoothness orders s=1,2. Experiments across varying distribution shifts demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.