arXiv:2606. 29644v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Earth system infrastructures relying on satellite-based technologies, such as Global Positioning System (GPS) communications, are affected by ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) gradients.
arXiv:2607. 23018v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Nonstationary Gaussian process (GP) models are powerful tools for capturing input-dependent variability by adapting to observed data.
arXiv:2506. 19340v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Whole-atmosphere models such as WACCM-X resolve coupling from the Earth surface to the Mesosphere-Lower-Thermosphere (MLT), and Ionosphere-Thermosphere (IT) systems with expensive computational costs.
PISCES is a physics‑informed convolutional autoencoder designed to detect solar‑wind transients for space‑weather early warning. Trained on OMNI solar‑wind data without catalog labels, its loss incorporates magnetic field consistency, temperature‑velocity relations, the Parker spiral angle, and temporal smoothness penalties. During inference, PISCES decomposes the anomaly score into magnetic, plasma, physics‑relation, and residual components, enabling alarms that can precede observed sudden commencements and positive sudden impulses.
arXiv:2601. 12614v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Hybrid-Vlasov simulations resolve ion-kinetic effects in the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction, but even 5D (2D + 3V) configurations are computationally expensive.
PROSWIN is a probabilistic machine learning model that forecasts hourly solar wind speed at Earth up to four days ahead, using solar images and magnetograms processed by a deep neural network and distributional regression. It introduces a prediction score metric that rewards both timeline and high‑speed solar wind peak accuracy, achieving well‑calibrated uncertainties and superior performance on 14 years of data compared to existing models. The study highlights the importance of the 171 Å channel and demonstrates that probabilistic forecasts outperform single‑value models for both overall timelines and peak events.
The paper presents a hierarchical ensemble for short‑term photovoltaic power forecasting that fuses temporal neural models, historical analogs, state climatology, and gradient‑boosted trees with horizon‑specific convex weights. Solar geometry and numerical weather forecasts provide expected generation conditions, while a calibration step corrects recent bias using historical forecast errors. Evaluated on PVDAQ and GEFCom2014 data, the ensemble reduces mean absolute error by up to 6% compared to strong individual models, though its advantage varies with dataset and horizon.
Engineering use of AI forecasting models requires not only high nominal accuracy but also predictable behavior under uncertain inputs. In photovoltaic (PV) forecasting, this requirement is especially challenging because numerical weather prediction (NWP) errors are temporally correlated, state dependent, and physically coupled across variables.
arXiv:2607. 12954v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Engineering use of AI forecasting models requires not only high nominal accuracy but also predictable behavior under uncertain inputs.
arXiv:2607. 08079v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential for reliable grid dispatch and renewable energy integration, yet it remains challenging because PV generation is jointly shaped by weather variability, day-night transitions, regime-dependent dynamics, and strict physical constraints.
arXiv:2605.24038v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Aurora visibility at a given location requires two physically distinct conditions to hold at once: aurora occurring overhead, governed by sol...
arXiv:2606. 07725v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Displacement time series from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are essential for a wide range of applications, including monitoring tectonic crustal deformations and investigating the different stages of the earthquake cycle.
The paper introduces CloudCast v2, a machine‑learning model that forecasts 12‑hour cloud‑cover from satellite‑derived initial conditions. Trained first on the Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis to learn cloud‑evolution dynamics, it is then adapted to real satellite data using conditional flow matching, a generative technique that conditions noise on observed cloud fields and NWP inputs. CloudCast v2 achieves a 10 % reduction in mean absolute error compared to its predecessor and surpasses it in spatial skill after 3–6 hours, extending useful forecasting beyond the typical 1–3‑hour nowcasting window while preserving satellite‑level spatial detail.