arXiv:2606. 29644v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Earth system infrastructures relying on satellite-based technologies, such as Global Positioning System (GPS) communications, are affected by ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) gradients.
By Stephen Tete, Carl Shneider, Maxime Cordy, Claudio Cesaroni, Andreas Hein, Vasily Petrov
PROSWIN is a probabilistic machine learning model that forecasts hourly solar wind speed at Earth up to four days ahead, using solar images and magnetograms processed by a deep neural network and distributional regression. It introduces a prediction score metric that rewards both timeline and high‑speed solar wind peak accuracy, achieving well‑calibrated uncertainties and superior performance on 14 years of data compared to existing models. The study highlights the importance of the 171 Å channel and demonstrates that probabilistic forecasts outperform single‑value models for both overall timelines and peak events.
By Daniel Collin, Yuri Shprits, Luca Chiarabini, Stefan J. Hofmeister, Nadja Klein, Guillermo Gallego
The paper presents a hierarchical ensemble for short‑term photovoltaic power forecasting that fuses temporal neural models, historical analogs, state climatology, and gradient‑boosted trees with horizon‑specific convex weights. Solar geometry and numerical weather forecasts provide expected generation conditions, while a calibration step corrects recent bias using historical forecast errors. Evaluated on PVDAQ and GEFCom2014 data, the ensemble reduces mean absolute error by up to 6% compared to strong individual models, though its advantage varies with dataset and horizon.
By Xu Yuqing, Zhou Liguo, Sun Ze, Yu Lei, Jiang Mingming
arXiv:2607. 19597v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present FlareEUV, a multimodal deep learning framework for predicting daily extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance at 6.
By Sathvik Soman, Jason T. L. Wang, Haimin Wang, Haodi Jiang
SolarBench is an open global benchmark for image-based solar nowcasting that consolidates over six million sky and satellite images from 11 sites across a decade, paired with irradiance, PV output, and atmospheric data. The benchmark includes a toolbox for reproducible data access, processing, model development, and evaluation. Using SolarBench, the authors benchmark representative models, uncover a gap between average forecasting accuracy and the capture of rapid solar fluctuations, quantify predictability across cloud regimes, and demonstrate data‑efficient adaptation to new PV systems.
By Yuhao Nie, Stephen Campbell, Quentin Paletta, Liwenbo Zhang, Tao Jing, Samer Chaaraoui, Jonathan Giezendanner, Andea Scott, Tao Sun, Cong Feng, Max Aragon, Jacques Camier, Adam Jensen, Florian Kotthoff, Yuexing Yang, Yang Ming, Mengying Li, Stefanie Meilinger, Yupeng Wu, Adam Brandt, Sherrie Wang
arXiv:2605.24038v3 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Aurora visibility at a given location requires two physically distinct conditions to hold at once: aurora occurring overhead, governed by sol...
By Zongyuan Ge, Chenwaner Zhang, Haoyang Li, Hantai Zhang, Wei Zhou, Wenxin Gu, Zhaoming Wang