arXiv Computation and Language

Chinese Decision: A Family of Language Models for Single-Pass Probabilistic Decision-Making

The paper introduces Chinese Decision, a family of Chinese-language models designed for single-pass probabilistic decision-making. The models generate logits for candidate choices in one forward pass and normalize them without autoregressive generation, supporting Boolean, categorical, and ordinal decisions. A 0.8B model trained on 13.048 million decisions achieves 72.24% general-domain accuracy and 76.98% average accuracy across medicine, law, and finance, while a 2B model shows comparable performance after partial training.

arXiv AI
Oct 9

TypedBench: A Benchmark for Calibration, Framing Sensitivity, and Cost in System One Decision Models

TypedBench is a new benchmark designed to evaluate system‑one decision models that output calibrated probabilities for typed answers—categorical, ordinal, or binary—using a non‑generative interface. The benchmark assesses models on policy adherence, wording robustness, probability quality (via selective prediction, ordinal proper scoring rules, and calibration error), and the cost of decisions under asymmetric cost matrices, using seven policy‑labelled generators and nine evaluation suites. Experiments on a hosted model, an open encoder, and a range of open decoders (0.8B–9B parameters) reveal that the hosted model is wording‑sensitive and underconfident, while decoders are slow and less accurate on policy questions, highlighting the need for joint evaluation across multiple dimensions.

By Rahul Sharma, Andrew B. Ducan, Ga\'etan Marceau Caron, Sebastian J. Vollmer
arXiv AI
6d ago

The Hitchhiker's Guide to System 1 Models: Fast Decision-Making Beyond LLMS

The paper introduces System 1 models—fast, single‑pass decision engines that map inputs directly to structured outputs, addressing the latency, cost, and calibration issues of large language models. It presents a five‑family taxonomy (encoder‑based classifiers, reward models, non‑autoregressive engines, contrastive models, and extraction models) and discusses training, deployment trade‑offs, and calibration theory, including proper scoring rules and RLCD. The guide also covers integration into agentic workflows, System 1+System 2 cascades, 18 application domains, an open‑source ecosystem, and practical resources such as code, a model zoo, and assessment questions.

By Haggai Roitman
arXiv AI
Oct 5

Test-time Calibration Learning for Large Language Model Reasoning

The paper introduces Test-Time Calibration Learning (TTCL), a label‑free framework that adapts both reasoning accuracy and verbalized confidence of large language models directly on unlabeled target‑task data. TTCL generates self‑supervision signals from multiple model responses, enabling calibration without ground‑truth labels and proving theoretically as a bounded surrogate for the ideal calibration objective. Experiments on mathematical reasoning and factual question answering show consistent improvements, with base models gaining an average 40.13% in accuracy and 70.80% in ECE reduction across eight benchmarks, and further gains under domain shift.

By Zizhuo Zhang, Xiong Peng, Jingwei Sun, Rong Yao, Shixiong Kai, Mingxuan Yuan, Bo Han