arXiv AI

TypedBench: A Benchmark for Calibration, Framing Sensitivity, and Cost in System One Decision Models

TypedBench is a new benchmark designed to evaluate system‑one decision models that output calibrated probabilities for typed answers—categorical, ordinal, or binary—using a non‑generative interface. The benchmark assesses models on policy adherence, wording robustness, probability quality (via selective prediction, ordinal proper scoring rules, and calibration error), and the cost of decisions under asymmetric cost matrices, using seven policy‑labelled generators and nine evaluation suites. Experiments on a hosted model, an open encoder, and a range of open decoders (0.8B–9B parameters) reveal that the hosted model is wording‑sensitive and underconfident, while decoders are slow and less accurate on policy questions, highlighting the need for joint evaluation across multiple dimensions.

arXiv AI
Oct 5

Benchmarking Candidate Coverage in Typed Decision Models

The paper introduces a paired candidate‑coverage benchmark protocol for typed decision models, evaluating two models—Laya and Jev—on datasets such as AG News, DBpedia, Emotion, and TREC. It reports that Laya detects a high percentage of missing-answer cases but also falsely rejects many valid candidates, whereas Jev shows lower false rejection rates but also lower detection of missing answers. The study highlights the need for separate measurements of classification, score ranking, and rejection policies, noting that the benchmark is descriptive and limited to reference‑label omission.

By Jiawen Lu, Tongtong Wu
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 3

Benchmarking System One decision models against trained classifiers and language models for automated decision gates

The paper evaluates System One decision models—typed models that output probabilities for branching decisions—against supervised classifiers and generative language models on automated decision gate tasks. Eight checkpoints from six families, including the hosted model Jev, were benchmarked on workflow, intent, and social‑science items, showing that small trained classifiers match or slightly outperform decision models on intent and workflow when labels are available, while decision models outperform zero‑shot classifiers when labels are absent. The study also explores calibration, risk thresholds, and cost‑efficiency trade‑offs, providing condition‑dependent design guidelines for automated decision gates.

By Amir Rafe, Subasish Das
arXiv AI
4d ago

Type-Safe Is Not Error-Free: Typed Decision Models Follow the Option Name, Not the Definition Bound to It

The paper demonstrates that typed decision models can produce type‑correct outputs that nevertheless do not adhere to the explicit definitions of their options. By swapping only the names of options while keeping the definitions, question, and state unchanged, the authors show that decision flips can increase dramatically—up to 70.4 percentage points—when using yes/no names versus neutral controls. This effect is consistent across multiple models and decision rules, and even random strings as names yield flip rates similar to neutral controls, indicating that option‑name polarity contributes to decision instability beyond mere reassignment.

By Yu Sun, Junhao Xu, Jiajia Shi, Zijin Yang
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 14

Can We Trust LLM Judges: A Study of Capability-Dependent Biases and Multi-Judge Ensemble for Bias Calibration

The paper investigates how large language models (LLMs) used as judges in absolute scoring tasks exhibit systematic biases that compromise reliability. It shows that a judge’s task accuracy strongly predicts both its judging accuracy and its directional bias, yet more capable examinee models consistently receive more lenient judgments. To mitigate these biases, the authors propose a calibrated weighted majority voting (WMV) ensemble that estimates judges’ error rates from inter-judge agreement patterns, achieving near-oracle performance without labeled data and improving both accuracy and fairness.

By Gemma Zhang, Prachi Badarayani, Asmi Kumar, Sadid Hasan, Sulaiman Vesal