The paper demonstrates that residual learning enables neural network models in asset pricing to become deeper while preserving and refining shallow counterparts. Deep residual models achieve a higher out‑of‑sample Sharpe ratio (2.07) compared to shallow models (1.92) and significantly outperform deep feedforward models (0.89). This suggests that model depth can add economic value and offers a scalable approach for large asset pricing models.
arXiv:2402. 06635v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We show that a deep neural network (DNN) trained to construct a stochastic discount factor (SDF) admits an additive decomposition separating nonlinear characteristic discovery from the pricing rule that aggregates them.
arXiv:2603.01820v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Forecasting financial asset returns is challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios, non-stationarity and heavy-tailed distributions. We ben...
The paper examines whether benign overfitting—where highly overparameterized models still predict well—occurs in equity return prediction. It finds a double‑descent risk curve for ridgeless models and shows that while ridge regularization slightly improves performance, the advantage vanishes at high parameter‑to‑observation ratios. Ultimately, both models fail to beat a simple historical average, indicating that standard equity predictors lack genuine forecasting power even with flexible machine learning methods.
The paper introduces the first multi‑horizon benchmark for forecasting resale prices of second‑hand electronics, comparing eleven statistical and deep learning models on a large Polish marketplace dataset covering 100+ smartphone and laptop models from January 2022 to March 2025. Across horizons from 1 to 365 days, N‑BEATS consistently outperforms all statistical baselines, achieving an 8.51% MAPE at 365 days versus 14.94% for the best baseline—a 43% reduction—while all models converge to about 0.72% MAPE for short horizons. A single N‑BEATS model trained for the 365‑day horizon generalizes to all shorter horizons, eliminating the need for horizon‑specific models, and N‑BEATS and N‑HiTS show superior hyperparameter stability.
arXiv:2605.28853v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Portfolio optimization in real-world financial markets is notoriously difficult due to non-stationarity, noisy data, and high transaction cos...
arXiv:2608. 27076v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Algorithmic trading now represents a market exceeding $20 billion, where even marginal gains in signal robustness can translate into economically significant returns.
While publicly available electricity market data presents a valuable resource for forecasting research, the field lacks established benchmark datasets for standardized comparison. As a result, many st...
The paper presents a controlled benchmark of nine deep‑learning architectures for multi‑horizon financial forecasting, using 918 runs across 12 assets and two forecast horizons. It employs a five‑stage evaluation pipeline that isolates architectural effects from hyperparameter tuning, random seeds, and asset characteristics. Results show ModernTCN and PatchTST consistently outperform others, with ModernTCN achieving the lowest RMSE in 75% of asset‑horizon points and a statistically significant global ranking advantage.
The paper presents a comparative study of six deep learning models—state-space, MLP, RNN, and Transformer-based architectures—for cross-border electricity price forecasting using publicly available data. It focuses on generalization across markets and evaluates performance under low-data target-market conditions (zero-shot, one-shot, few-shot) with a standardized dataset for the Germany‑Luxembourg bidding zone in 2024. Results show that N‑HiTS and NBEATSx perform competitively in limited‑data scenarios, while transformer models achieve comparable accuracy but require more adaptation and tuning, and that careful feature selection and hyperparameter tuning improve performance.
arXiv:2508. 19006v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This study investigates the pre-trained RNN attention models with the mainstream attention mechanisms, such as additive attention, Luong's three attentions, global self-attention and sliding window sparse attention, for the empirical asset pricing research on the top 420 large-cap US stocks.
The paper explores tabular deep learning for equity signal generation, training five model classes on daily data from about 300 large‑cap US stocks over eleven years. By using Bayesian optimisation that targets trading performance across three distinct market regimes, the authors achieve regime‑robust hyperparameter selection, yielding out‑of‑sample signal precision above random and a Hybrid ensemble (XGBoost + TabNet) with an annualised return of 51.26% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.44. The study also finds that alternative data adds limited value beyond technical and fundamental features, and that the ensemble’s outperformance is driven by stock selection rather than market exposure.
arXiv:2602. 03395v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While deep learning has revolutionized financial forecasting through sophisticated architectures, the design of the supervision signal itself is rarely scrutinized.