arXiv AI

Ask a Language Model for Lottery Numbers: Concentration in Repeated Six-of-49 Outputs

The study evaluated six language‑model configurations for generating six distinct random integers between 1 and 49, using 1,200 attempts across four English prompts. Valid tickets were produced in 1,184 responses, but the effective diversity of number frequencies was low (9.9 to 18.0) compared to the expected 46.6–46.7 from independent uniform sampling. The models generated 8–93 distinct unordered tickets, with modal tickets comprising 22.5–68.0% of valid outputs, indicating substantial concentration in the generated lottery numbers.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 30

Lottery Tickets Are Not Deployment Tickets

arXiv:2607. 27031v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reports on how sparsification, compression, and lottery tickets change model behavior have been mixed in the prior literature, with beneficial effects observed in some studies and adverse effects in others.

By Bum Jun Kim
arXiv AI
3d ago

The One-Word Census: Answer-Choice Conformity Across 105 Language Models

The study examines how 105 language models choose a single word from a large set of valid options, finding that 46% of the time they all pick the same word, "serendipity." Using 96 prompts that ask for one-word answers across various categories, the researchers measure convergence and each model’s share of the consensus. They observe that post‑training and persona‑tuned models diverge more, while heavily post‑trained assistants are more conformist, and that the field’s answer choices are more concentrated than human norms in most categories.

By Tapan Parikh
arXiv AI
Oct 2

Evaluating LLM-Generated Preference Distributions

The paper evaluates how Large Language Models generate preference distributions for air travel, restaurants, and consumer products. It finds that while each model produces self-coherent outcomes that stabilize quickly, there is significant disagreement across different model families and scales, with little consensus even on the most probable preferences. These discrepancies persist across various decoding strategies, temperature settings, and prompt variations, indicating that the model choice itself has a larger impact than prompt wording.

By Fan Huang, Minsuk Kim, C. Tyler Diggans, Filippo Radicchi
arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 1

Token Counts Are Not Model Lineage: A Frozen-Threshold Holdout Study of Black-Box LLM API Fingerprinting

The study evaluates whether prompt‑token counts can reliably identify the lineage of large language models served via APIs. Using a frozen‑threshold approach on 24 labeled endpoint pairs, the authors find that token‑count consistency perfectly separates development pairs but only half of the holdout pairs meet the strict repeatability criteria, yielding moderate accuracy and perfect specificity. The results confirm token‑count consistency as a fingerprint of shared tokenization stacks but reject it as a standalone test for model‑family attribution.

By Bo Chen
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 14

One Token Is Enough: Fingerprinting and Verifying Large Language Models from Single-Token Output Distributions

arXiv:2607. 10252v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly consumed through opaque serving chains - API aggregators, resellers, and inference providers - in which the client has no technical means to confirm that the model answering is the model advertised, and recent audits show that a substantial fraction of commercial endpoints deviate from the vendor's reference weights.

By Tomas Bruckner
arXiv Computation and Language
Aug 27

Lower-Resource, Higher Scores: Language Bias in LLM Evaluators

The paper demonstrates that large language model (LLM) evaluators, whether reward‑model based or prompted LLM‑as‑a‑Judge, exhibit significant language bias in multilingual settings. Experiments with semantically identical instruction‑response pairs across 23 languages reveal that lower‑resource languages receive higher scores, a bias that persists across eight open‑weight evaluators and is not detectable by standard pairwise accuracy metrics. The authors link the bias to model uncertainty and language identity, showing it cannot be explained by content difficulty alone.

By Ej Zhou, Lucas Resck, Zheng Hui, Anna Korhonen
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 11

On the Effect of Sampling Diversity in Scaling LLM Inference

arXiv:2502. 11027v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language model (LLM) scaling inference is key to unlocking greater performance, and leveraging diversity has proven an effective way to enhance it.

By Tianchun Wang, Zichuan Liu, Yuanzhou Chen, Jonathan Light, Weiyang Liu, Haifeng Chen, Xiang Zhang, Wei Cheng
arXiv AI
Aug 25

Vibe Coding on Trial: Operating Characteristics of Unanimous LLM Juries

The paper evaluates using large language model (LLM) juries to review code generated from natural language queries, focusing on MySQL text-to-SQL tasks. It benchmarks 15 open models, selects the top six, and constructs unanimous committees of varying sizes to accept a query only when all members agree. The study finds that single-model judges are inconsistent, while small unanimous committees of strong models can reduce false accepts without discarding many correct queries, and that committee composition significantly influences performance.

By Muhammad Aziz Ullah, Abdul Serwadda
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 30

Quantifying Behavioral Tails in Black-Box Language Models

The paper introduces RareTrap, a framework that estimates the probability of severe behaviors in black‑box large language models. RareTrap constructs a geometry‑aware mapping from a low‑dimensional latent space into token‑embedding space using a surrogate LLM, creating an explicit and reproducible distribution over input prompts. By applying a response‑level performance function and sequential rare‑event simulation, RareTrap concentrates evaluations on increasingly severe behaviors while preserving probability, enabling estimation of such behaviors with as few as 200 evaluations across multiple open‑weight and frontier models.

By Elsayed Eshra, Ali Al-Lawati, Dongwon Lee, Suhang Wang