Experiments with Optimal Model Trees
arXiv:2503. 12902v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Model trees provide an appealing way to perform interpretable machine learning for both classification and regression problems.
The paper introduces the twoblock clustering tree (TBTREE), a deterministic regression tree designed for multivariate responses that uses local multivariate linear models as leaves and incorporates dense or sparse twoblock dimension reduction both in the leaf models and impurity calculation. TBTREE aims to provide an interpretable, regime‑aligned piecewise‑linear description of data while maintaining predictive performance through a split/leaf decoupling strategy. Additionally, the authors propose a coskewness‑based estimator for the twoblock reduced space to identify non‑normal clusters, demonstrating the method’s ability to recover piecewise linear regimes in simulations and to model complex nonlinear dependencies in real‑world datasets, achieving performance comparable to black‑box techniques such as random forests.
arXiv:2503. 12902v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Model trees provide an appealing way to perform interpretable machine learning for both classification and regression problems.
arXiv:2602. 22432v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Gradient-boosted decision trees are among the strongest off-the-shelf predictors for tabular regression, but point predictions alone do not quantify uncertainty.
arXiv:2606. 18853v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A recent line of work has reframed individual decision trees as linear models on engineered features associated with their splits, opening routes for oracle inequalities and feature-importance reinterpretation, but leaving open the question of what unified geometric object a forest induces when one indexes its feature map by nodes rather than by splits.
arXiv:2611.06428v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Partially interpretable models extend simple interpretable models with the option to defer complicated inputs to an accurate but uninterpretable black-...
Regression trees are among the most interpretable yet expressive model classes in machine learning. Historically, greedy induction has been the dominant approach for constructing well-performing regression trees.
The paper introduces a new algorithm that uses decision trees and random forests to estimate individual treatment effects while providing interpretability. It modifies the standard random forest splitting criterion by combining a heterogeneity-focused criterion with a bias-correction criterion, enabling the model to handle observational studies with varying treatment propensities without separately estimating propensity scores. The resulting tree structure directly reveals which features drive treatment effect differences, and simulation studies show the method matches or surpasses existing approaches in prediction accuracy while improving interpretability.
arXiv:2609.24528v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Random forests (RFs) predict well but are opaque, whereas single decision trees are interpretable but unstable. Artificial representative trees (ARTs...
arXiv:2609.16952v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Feature-based multi-product pricing uses customer characteristics to identify demand heterogeneity and tailor prices across products. Choice model tr...
arXiv:2608. 03111v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Double descent is commonly studied by scaling an explicit capacity parameter, such as neural-network width.
arXiv:2607. 23721v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Distributional random forests replace mean-based CART splitting with criteria that compare the full conditional response distribution in candidate children.
arXiv:2606. 30995v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent work has shown that well-optimized individual decision trees can match complex black box models in some settings, primarily in noisy domains.
Random forests (RFs) predict well but are opaque, whereas single decision trees are interpretable but unstable. Artificial representative trees (ARTs) were developed as interpretable surrogate models...