arXiv AI
Jun 10
CITRAS: Covariate-Informed Transformer for Time Series Forecasting
arXiv:2503. 24007v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In time series forecasting, covariates represent external factors that influence target variables.
Not All Variables Agree: Reliability-Aware Variable-Wise Gradient Surgery for Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting
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arXiv Machine Learning
3d ago
Large Distant Gradients Need Not Be Reliable: reliability-weighted credit assignment for long-horizon autoregressive forecasting
The paper introduces Internal Dual-Wiener routing (Internal‑DW), a backward‑only method that weight‑balances internal gradient routes in autoregressive forecasting. By estimating bounded Wiener gains for identity and nonlinear paths, it suppresses unpredictable noise while preserving predictable learning signals, reducing forecast error by 5.2%–13.8% on four weak‑drive testbeds compared to full BPTT and outperforming gradient clipping, Jacobian regularization, and truncated BPTT in most cases. The approach shows that long‑horizon supervision can be effective without trusting every backward gradient equally.
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 4
Beyond Magnitude and Shape: A Direction-Aware Loss for Time Series Forecasting
arXiv:2608. 01857v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The direction of change --- whether a series will move up or down --- is often as important as its exact value in decisiondriven applications such as risk management and financial forecasting.
arXiv AI
Aug 7
Multivariate Time Series Forecasting needs Cross Variable Loss
arXiv:2608. 05742v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multivariate time series forecasting presents unique challenges because future variables often co-evolve under shared system dynamics.
arXiv AI
Sep 4
RATL: Learning from Retrieved Residuals for Robust Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting
RATL is a plug‑in method for multivariate time‑series forecasting that uses a frozen base forecaster to build a memory of its historical forecast residuals. During inference, RATL retrieves residual trajectories from similar past contexts and employs a set‑aware router to combine them, providing learned feedback correction. Experiments demonstrate that this residual‑retrieval approach improves the performance of the base forecaster across various benchmarks and backbones.
arXiv AI
Aug 17
PEFT-MuTS: A Multivariate Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning Framework for Remaining Useful Life Prediction based on Cross-domain Time Series Representation Model
arXiv:2601. 22631v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The application of data-driven remaining useful life (RUL) prediction has long been constrained by the availability of large amount of degradation data.
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 31
Generalized Gibbs Ensemble Weighting for Forecast Combination
The paper introduces Generalized Gibbs Ensemble Weighting (GGEW), a probabilistic framework that assigns weights to forecasting models using a Gibbs-style exponential transformation of normalized predictive loss. GGEW extends basic weighting through numerical stabilization, diversity-aware score corrections, and online hyperparameter adaptation, yielding variants such as Stable Gibbs weighting, Directional Gibbs-NCL, and Symmetric Gibbs-NCL. The authors evaluate GGEW on M4 competition submissions and real-world datasets (Monash Traffic, Electricity, Solar), finding that Gibbs-style adaptive weighting is competitive across various settings, though performance varies by dataset, horizon, and deployment protocol.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 2
Amortized Predictability-aware Training Framework for Time Series Forecasting and Classification
arXiv:2602. 16224v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time series data are prone to noise in various domains, and training samples may contain low-predictability patterns that deviate from the normal data distribution, leading to training instability or convergence to poor local minima.
arXiv AI
Aug 18
AsyTO: Asymmetric Temporal Operator for Parameter-Efficient Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
arXiv:2608. 16098v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multivariate time-series forecasting faces a structural dilemma: sharing one temporal predictor across variables is parameter-efficient but forces heterogeneous variables through an identical history-to-future map, whereas learning an independent predictor per variable restores flexibility at a cost that grows with the product of variable count, context length, and horizon.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 10
CITRAS-FM: Tiny Time Series Foundation Model for Covariate-Informed Zero-Shot Forecasting
arXiv:2606. 10798v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pretrained time series foundation models (TSFMs) have enabled zero-shot forecasting on unseen target series.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 23
Expert-Guided Forecast Editing for Time-Series Foundation Models
arXiv:2607. 19659v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time-series foundation models can forecast across heterogeneous domains without task-specific training, but their forecasts are fixed once produced and cannot directly incorporate task-specific expert feedback.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 2
LeNEPA: No-Augmentation Next-Latent Prediction for Time-Series Representation Learning
arXiv:2607. 00958v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series are central to modern data mining applications, from industrial telemetry and server metrics to finance and physiology, yet time-series self-supervised learning often depends on view and augmentation choices that encode domain-specific invariances.