arXiv AI

Structure, Not Belief: Correlated Thompson Sampling from LLM-Derived Covariance in Combinatorial Semi-Bandits

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 18

Odds-Ratio Thompson Sampling: A Specification and Design Guide for Contrast-Based Multi-Armed Bandits

The paper introduces Odds‑Ratio Thompson Sampling (OR‑TS), a method for batched multi‑armed bandits that updates the joint posterior over log‑odds contrasts and refits the shared level in each batch, rather than carrying over absolute reward rates. It presents a Bayesian bandit agent with controls for decay of past evidence and aggressiveness of allocation, and evaluates OR‑TS against traditional absolute‑rate memory across 86 public A/B series and synthetic environments. Results show that when the shared level varies significantly, OR‑TS outperforms absolute‑rate memory, reducing regret and ensuring the best arm receives more traffic, while also handling cases where contrasts themselves shift.

By Sulgi Kim
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 25

Exact Bayes Regret and Asymptotic Optimality in High-Dimensional Gaussian Bandits

The paper analyzes Bayesian linear bandits with isotropic Gaussian parameters, independent Gaussian arms, and Gaussian reward noise when the time horizon scales with the dimension. It derives explicit limits for the normalized posterior uncertainty and parameter overlaps, yielding exact regret curves for several policies—including Thompson sampling, posterior‑mean greedy selection, and scaled‑covariance variants. The results show that posterior‑mean greedy selection achieves the optimal Bayes regret, while Thompson sampling incurs a strictly larger leading regret whose ratio to greedy lies between one and two, approaching two for long horizons.

By Prakhar Singhvi (Abstract Math Institute), Yi Zou (Abstract Math Institute), Abhishek Bhattacharjee (Abstract Math Institute)
arXiv AI
Sep 2

Bandits in Prod: Hyperparameter Optimization at Inference Time

The paper introduces Online Hyperparameter Optimization (OHPO), framing it as an infinitely many‑armed bandit problem over mixed and conditional search spaces. It proposes the IMABO framework, which couples any bandit policy with any oracle for proposing new configurations, and presents IMOSS—a restart‑free anytime policy with provable regret bounds. Experiments show that IMABO, combined with practical oracles such as TPE, an incumbent‑mutation oracle, and a pretrained tabular foundation model, outperforms random search across a range of settings from classical ML models to LLM‑based agents.

By Louis Abraham, Tuan-Anh Nguyen, Nicolas Devatine
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 7

Prior Diffusiveness and Regret in the Linear-Gaussian Bandit

arXiv:2601. 02022v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We prove that Thompson sampling exhibits $\tilde{O}(\sigma d \sqrt{T} + d r \sqrt{\mathrm{Tr}(\Sigma_0)})$ Bayesian regret in the linear-Gaussian bandit with a $\mathcal{N}(\mu_0, \Sigma_0)$ prior distribution on the coefficients, where $d$ is the dimension, $T$ is the time horizon, $r$ is the maximum $\ell_2$ norm of the actions, and $\sigma^2$ is the noise variance.

By Yifan Zhu, John C. Duchi, Benjamin Van Roy
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 30

Randomized Exploration for Linear Bandits via Absolute Perturbations

arXiv:2606. 28616v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In stochastic linear bandits, the canonical Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithm admits a simple frequentist regret analysis but can be computationally demanding, while Thompson Sampling (TS) is computationally attractive yet typically harder to analyze due to its non-optimistic nature.

By Toshinori Kitamura, Shuai Liu, Csaba Szepesv\'ari
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 9

Asymptotic Optimality of Thompson Sampling for Risk-Averse Bandits with Sub-Gaussian Rewards

arXiv:2606. 09191v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We prove that $\rho\text{-}\mathrm{NPTS}_{\mathrm{SG}}$, an anchor-free nonparametric Thompson Sampling algorithm for risk-averse bandits, achieves regret matching the instance-dependent lower bound to leading order in $\log n$, establishing it as asymptotically optimal for any continuous risk functional $\rho$ (CVaR, mean-variance, Sharpe ratio, distortion risk measures, and more) on the class of distributions with bounded density and sub-Gaussian tails, including Gaussian arms.

By Joel Q. L. Chang