arXiv AI

Anytime-Valid Runtime Monitoring of Learned Barrier Certificates

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

Information-Geometric First-Passage Monitoring of Distributional Stability in Stochastic Systems

The paper presents a runtime monitoring framework for stochastic systems that distinguishes normal distributional relaxation from regime changes while limiting false alarms. It combines relative‑entropy dissipation, information geometry, and sequential inference within a bounded first‑passage architecture, employing Gaussian window surrogates, covariance shrinkage, and conformal ranking aggregated by a mixture power‑martingale. Validation on Ornstein–Uhlenbeck dynamics and network intrusion datasets (NSL‑KDD, UNSW‑NB15) shows high detection rates with low false positives, highlighting calibration transport as a key deployment challenge.

By Hikmat Karimov, Rahid Zahid Alekberli
arXiv AI
Sep 24

Finite-Sample Probabilistic Safety Certification for AI-Based Grid-Edge Coordination

The paper introduces a finite‑sample probabilistic safety certification framework for black‑box AI decision models used in closed‑loop grid operation. It transforms the AI‑grid evaluation into a binary unsafe outcome under a safety specification and applies exact binomial inference to provide a tight one‑sided upper bound on the unsafe operation probability, using held‑out calibration scenarios. The framework also incorporates physically interpretable sample‑space adversarial attacks to address distribution shifts and is validated through case studies involving 1,000‑agent AI models for grid‑edge flexibility coordination.

By Yihong Zhou, Hanbin Yang, Thomas Morstyn
arXiv AI
Sep 18

Refuse, Decompose, Refresh: A Claim-Safe Protocol for Closed-Loop AI Evaluation

The paper introduces a claim‑safe protocol for evaluating closed‑loop AI systems, consisting of three actions: Refuse, Decompose, and Refresh. It demonstrates the protocol in a simulator with 24 policy components and 1,440 held‑out cases, showing that abstention and stable false admission rates are low while providing detailed statistical diagnostics. The approach emphasizes that evaluation results should be tied to observable support and statistical calibration rather than a single PASS/FAIL label.

By Peiying Zhu, Sidi Chang