arXiv:2602. 13848v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose a sequential test for detecting arbitrary distribution shifts that allows conformal test martingales (CTMs) to work under a fixed, reference-conditional setting.
By Shalev Shaer, Yarin Bar, Drew Prinster, Yaniv Romano
arXiv:2608. 14089v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Safety classifiers deployed with large language models often fail for two reasons: their decisions reflect the policy learned during training rather than the deployer's desired policy, and their performance degrades as deployment traffic evolves.
By Thiago Sandoval, Ufuk Topcu
The paper introduces SHAP concentration as a pre‑deployment diagnostic for detecting when conformal prediction will fail under distribution shift, specifically in gradient‑boosted classifiers. Using a COVID‑19 supply‑chain case study, the authors show that higher feature‑importance concentration correlates with larger drops in coverage, while standard shift detectors cannot differentiate between catastrophic and robust outcomes. The diagnostic is validated on additional datasets, and a formal theorem links concentration to worsening conformity‑score bounds, though it does not capture global‑sensitivity failures in neural networks.
By Chorok Lee
arXiv:2606. 20859v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A fundamental assumption in statistics and machine learning is that ``the future looks like the past,'' formalized as exchangeability: the joint data distribution is order-invariant.
By Johan Hallberg Szabadv\'ary
arXiv:2610.00873v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: In many industrial applications, 1) tabular data is scarce and imbalanced and thus requires synthetic expansion; 2) input distributions drift between...
By Hongyu Cao, Xinyuan Wang, Arun Vignesh Malarkkan, Kunpeng Liu, Haifeng Chen, Yanjie Fu
arXiv:2608.30502v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Machine learning systems are increasingly corrected while they run, and the decision of when to intervene is increasingly delegated to statistical moni...
By Weijia Han, Lisha Qu