The paper introduces a Causal Market Simulator using a continuous‑time causal prior‑data fitted network (PFN) to estimate market impact, addressing bias from informational flow that traditional models overlook. On a synthetic market prior with adjustable confounding, the PFN matches an unbiased oracle while a naive estimator overestimates by up to 68%. In zero‑shot tests on real limit‑order books and equity data, the model’s intervention responses align with ground‑truth scales and improve correlation with measured impact when a recurrent state‑space variant is used.
arXiv:2610.20104v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Autoregressive transformers trained on limit order book (LOB) message streams are increasingly proposed as foundation models for market microstructure....
ProximalFM is a transformer‑based model that uses prior‑data fitted networks (PFNs) to perform Bayesian proximal causal inference under hidden confounding. By training on synthetic data generated from structural causal models with oracle counterfactuals, it amortizes the Bayesian operator inversion into a single forward pass, producing posterior estimates of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). The approach consistently outperforms prior methods across various proximal regimes, especially when latent confounding is strong and proxy variables are weakly informative, and it requires no dataset‑specific tuning.
arXiv:2607. 29484v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Interventional data is widely regarded as the gold standard for teaching models causal reasoning.
arXiv:2610. 12232v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods for time-series forecasting update a deployed model, or a small adapter around it, from incoming ground truth.
arXiv:2608. 03715v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Mean-reverting dynamics are pervasive in finance, and the Cox--Ingersoll--Ross (CIR) process is a standard model for the time series they produce, from short rates to credit default swap (CDS) spreads.
arXiv:2609. 26290v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal tabular foundation models amortize effect estimation across synthetic mechanisms, but latent-effect supervision rewards posterior shrinkage instead of directly encoding the repeated-sample response needed in a fixed deployment population.
The paper investigates when pooling information across intermittent-demand series is beneficial, focusing on the trade‑off between forgetting past data and borrowing strength from other series. By applying a single exponential recency operator to both item‑ and group‑level statistics in a hierarchical empirical‑Bayes hurdle model, the authors derive a diagnostic that quantifies credibility and resolution, and use it to screen for regimes where refinement offers no advantage. Empirical tests on five public panels of over 19,000 series show that the diagnostic accurately predicts when shared priors improve accuracy, and the resulting forecaster (EBB) matches specialist Gaussian‑process models within a few percent while being far cheaper to run.
arXiv:2609.01108v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: TRACE (Math & Lienhart, arXiv:2602.01135) reads causal graphs over event types out of a pretrained autoregressive sequence model by thresholding a per-...
arXiv:2605. 09169v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A Mamba state-space model trained only for next-step prediction appears to recover Granger-causal structure through a simple readout $S = |W_{out} W_{in}|$, with early experiments suggesting the phenomenon generalized across architectures and benefited from interventional data at $p < 10^{-5}$.
arXiv:2607. 12985v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Aligned language models routinely misreport under non-evidential incentive pressure: they agree with a confident user or overstate certainty even when their internal belief is unchanged.
arXiv:2603. 12037v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Foundation models based on prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have shown strong empirical performance in causal inference by framing the task as an in-context learning problem.
arXiv:2606. 12841v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Masked diffusion language models (MDLMs) such as LLaDA now rival autoregressive (AR) LLMs, but every existing knowledge-editing and unlearning method (ROME, MEMIT, etc.