The paper introduces the conditional expected local radius (CELR), a new tool for measuring local conditional probability concentration in general metric spaces. Using CELR, the authors develop a conformal prediction method that works for non‑Euclidean responses, accommodates heterogeneity and multimodality without requiring densities or vector‑space structure, and avoids costly transport comparisons. The method is implemented via a metric distributional random forest that handles multivariate covariates and nonlinear interactions, yielding uniform consistency, asymptotic conditional validity, and finite‑sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, while also providing substantial computational savings compared to existing approaches.
By Rui Qiu, Fang Yao, Zhou Yu
arXiv:2410. 24145v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We apply conformal prediction techniques to regression problems with circular responses, producing prediction sets with adaptive arc length and finite-sample coverage guarantees for any circular predictive model under the assumption of data exchangeability.
By Paulo C. Marques F., Rinaldo Artes, Helton Graziadei
Random forests (RFs) predict well but are opaque, whereas single decision trees are interpretable but unstable. Artificial representative trees (ARTs) were developed as interpretable surrogate models...
arXiv:2511.15146v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) constructs uncertainty sets for model outputs with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Yet ranking scores is straightforwa...
By Eugene Ndiaye
arXiv:2609.24528v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Random forests (RFs) predict well but are opaque, whereas single decision trees are interpretable but unstable. Artificial representative trees (ARTs...
By Lea L. Mairh\"ofer, Silke Szymczak, Bj\"orn-Hergen Laabs, Tuwe L\"ofstr\"om-Cavallin
arXiv:2603.23923v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Predictive inference is a fundamental task in statistics, traditionally addressed using parametric assumptions about the data distribution an...
By Matteo Sesia, Stefano Favaro
Conformal prediction replaces single-class predictions with prediction sets that guarantee a pre-specified coverage probability. The paper reviews properties of non‑conformity score functions, presents examples from the literature, and proposes new modifications. It introduces a method to evaluate prediction set sizes and compares different score functions, including their effectiveness for class‑conditional conformal prediction with imbalanced classes.
By Sol Erika Boman
arXiv:2607. 10008v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce a new conformal prediction method that constructs calibrated prediction sets over collections of spatial events, such as tropical cyclone genesis and earthquake locations.
By Collin Nill, Trevor Harris, Jason Adams
arXiv:2608. 06206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable.
By Anton Conrad, Rustam Isaev, Denis Belomestny, Eric Moulines, Sergey Samsonov
arXiv:2602. 14913v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees under an exchangeability assumption, but these guarantees can fail if the data distribution shifts.
By Farbod Siahkali, Ashwin Verma, Vijay Gupta
arXiv:2602. 16015v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction gives finite-sample coverage guarantees for regression, but most standard constructions are designed for Euclidean output spaces.
By Marzieh Amiri Shahbazi, Ali Baheri
The paper presents a conformal prediction framework for regression problems where the responses lie on the Grassmann manifold. It builds prediction regions as metric balls on the manifold, using basis‑invariant geometric distances as non‑conformity measures and scaling them with a learned prediction‑difficulty estimator to achieve locally adaptive, input‑dependent regions. The method preserves finite‑sample marginal coverage under exchangeability and is evaluated on synthetic data and an airfoil inverse shape‑design task, showing that geometry‑aware scores and local adaptation improve coverage uniformity and can reduce region size in heteroscedastic settings.
By Dimitrios Loukrezis, Zachary J. Grey, Dimitris G. Giovanis