arXiv:2608. 14456v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Short-horizon forecasting of fine particulate matter (PM2.
arXiv:2610.14863v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Data-driven weather forecasting models are commonly trained on ERA5, yet operational deployment must use timely initial states from physics-based numer...
arXiv:2602. 16579v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable global streamflow forecasting is essential for flood preparedness and water resource management, yet data-driven models often suffer from a performance gap when transitioning from historical reanalysis to operational forecast products.
arXiv:2607. 05100v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons.
Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons. Errors accumulate over long autoregressive rollouts, systematic biases grow with lead time, and several years of data must be held out for independent verification, even though machine-learning models otherwise benefit from longer training records.
arXiv:2603.25495v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate short-term air-quality forecasting is essential for public health protection and urban management, yet many recent forecasting frame...
arXiv:2608. 14652v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The development of 0.
The note updates the Attention ResUNet hourly precipitation postprocessor, replacing 192 month‑ and lead‑specific models with a single season‑conditioned model using Feature‑wise Linear Modulation. Lead time is extended to 72 h and two new input channels—local solar hour and a monthly‑varying precipitation climatology—are added. Verification shows a modest, consistent improvement in Brier Skill Score and reliability compared to the previous training.
arXiv:2608. 09971v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Over the past few years, the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting has produced deterministic models whose medium-range skill matches or exceeds that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution forecast (HRES).
arXiv:2606. 19026v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecast errors in high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are often linked to unresolved planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, convection, terrain-induced circulations, and other vertically structured atmospheric phenomena.
KNOU‑Flood extends the open AIFL recipe for global streamflow forecasting by retaining a single‑layer LSTM and two‑stage transfer learning while adding a longer 424‑day input window, lead‑aware forecast inputs, and GraphCast as an additional forecast source. The model also introduces a latent‑noise ensemble trained with the fair CRPS, achieving a median KGE′ of 0.65 at lead time 1 and 0.48 at lead time 10 across 2,099 test basins, outperforming AIFL and a 1,024‑unit baseline. The probabilistic head, GraphCast channels, longer window, and mixed fine‑tuning collectively reduce lead‑time decay, improve calibration, and enhance detection of multi‑year floods.
arXiv:2607. 11896v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecasting particulate matter (PM10) requires both station-scale accuracy and continuous spatial fields, especially during severe dust storms.
District heating energy hubs require reliable heat load forecasts for efficient operational scheduling. Conventional forecasting workflows train system-specific models on historical data, which can become burdensome when networks change through new consumers, retrofits, or changing operating regimes.