arXiv Machine Learning

SPECTRA: State-Space Exogenous Context and Temporal-Frequency Resolution Architecture for Probabilistic Energy Forecasting

arXiv:2607. 20587v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Modern power systems increasingly require probabilistic forecasts amid interacting uncertainties from renewable intermittency, flexible demand, market volatility, and weather-dependent generation.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 15

Trend-Aware Multi-Task Learning for Short-Term Energy Forecasting

arXiv:2511. 09789v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Short-term energy forecasting plays an important role in real-time operational decision-making, such as electricity market bidding and power system dispatch, where both numerical accuracy and correct directional signals are essential.

By Fulong Yao, Wanqing Zhao, Chao Zheng, Xiaofei Han
arXiv AI
Jul 10

PARA-PV: Physics-Aware Retrieval-Augmented PV Prediction Based on Frozen Foundation Model and Distribution Shift Correction

arXiv:2607. 08079v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential for reliable grid dispatch and renewable energy integration, yet it remains challenging because PV generation is jointly shaped by weather variability, day-night transitions, regime-dependent dynamics, and strict physical constraints.

By Hang Fan, Weican Liu, Ying Lu, Dunnan Liu, Long Cheng, Wei Wei
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 31

Bridging AI and Energy Forecasting: An Autonomous Workflow with Customized Toolkit

arXiv:2307. 07191v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Energy forecasting is crucial for the power grid, but fundamentally different from general time series analysis: it highly relies on covariates like meteorological factors, and its goals must align with actual power grid operations, such as risk assessment and system reliability.

By Zhixian Wang, Leandro Von Krannichfeldt, Qingsong Wen, Chaoli Zhang, Liang Sun, Shirui Pan, Yi Wang
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 23

PROSWIN: Probabilistic Solar Wind Speed Forecasting Using Deep Distributional Regression From Solar Images

PROSWIN is a probabilistic machine learning model that forecasts hourly solar wind speed at Earth up to four days ahead, using solar images and magnetograms processed by a deep neural network and distributional regression. It introduces a prediction score metric that rewards both timeline and high‑speed solar wind peak accuracy, achieving well‑calibrated uncertainties and superior performance on 14 years of data compared to existing models. The study highlights the importance of the 171 Å channel and demonstrates that probabilistic forecasts outperform single‑value models for both overall timelines and peak events.

By Daniel Collin, Yuri Shprits, Luca Chiarabini, Stefan J. Hofmeister, Nadja Klein, Guillermo Gallego
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

WPBench: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Wind Power Forecasting

arXiv:2609.24444v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate, reliable, and deployable wind power forecasting is critical for power system dispatch, renewable energy integration, and electricity market o...

By Yuhan Zhu, Jilin Hu, Xinying Cai, Yingshan Li, Li Ma, Xiangfei Qiu Linsen Li, Kai Zhang, Yao Fu, Weihao Jiang, Bin Yang
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jul 2

Probabilistic Low-Voltage Peak Load Forecasting with Time Series Foundation Models Evaluated on Application-Oriented Metrics

Low-voltage load forecasting is an important component in current and future energy systems with a high degree of electrification and decentralized generation. However, current forecasting methods require significant manual effort, often lack uncertainty estimation and proper peak prediction, and they are often not adequately evaluated in terms of grid requirements.