arXiv Machine Learning

Formal Bayesian Transfer Learning via the Total Risk Prior

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 7

Distribution-free Deviation Bounds and The Role of Domain Knowledge in Learning via Model Selection with Cross-validation Risk Estimation

arXiv:2303. 08777v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Cross-validation is one of the most widely used tools for risk estimation and model selection in statistics and machine learning, yet its theoretical properties when embedded in a learning procedure remain insufficiently understood.

By Diego Marcondes, Cl\'audia Peixoto
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 18

Bridging Data Gaps in Structural Fragility Modeling through Transfer Learning: Methodology and Case Studies

arXiv:2606. 18567v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper presents a methodology-centered transfer learning framework for fragility adaptation under domain shift, class imbalance, and scarce target labels while preserving engineering interpretability and supporting decision-making under uncertainty.

By Narges Saeednejad, Jamie Ellen Padgett
arXiv Statistics ML
6d ago

Prior Predictive Matching for Bayesian LoRA

arXiv:2610.35457v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bayesian variants of Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) provide principled uncertainty estimation when fine-tuning large foundation models, but require speci...

By Tomasz Ku\'smierczyk, Eliezer de Souza da Silva, Marcin Sendera
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 7

ProximalFM: Amortized Proximal Causal Inference under Hidden Confounding

ProximalFM is a transformer‑based model that uses prior‑data fitted networks (PFNs) to perform Bayesian proximal causal inference under hidden confounding. By training on synthetic data generated from structural causal models with oracle counterfactuals, it amortizes the Bayesian operator inversion into a single forward pass, producing posterior estimates of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). The approach consistently outperforms prior methods across various proximal regimes, especially when latent confounding is strong and proxy variables are weakly informative, and it requires no dataset‑specific tuning.

By Christophe Muller, Ayub Kharel, Alex Luedtke, Chan Park, Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen, Juan L. Gamella, Rahul Krishnan, Ricardo Silva, Jakob Zeitler
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 12

Hierarchical Empirical-Bayes Naive Bayes: Minimax Smoothing and Calibration with AODE Extension

arXiv:2608. 11162v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Naive Bayes (NB) classifier remains a standard choice for categorical data, yet its widely used smoothing rules, such as Laplace, Lidstone, Krichevsky-Trofimov, and the $m$-estimate, all prescribe a fixed smoothing strength that ignores feature cardinality, sample size, and class imbalance, inducing a non-vanishing bias on modern high-cardinality tabular data.

By Nguyen Thai Anh, Truong Viet Vu, Tran Thien Thanh, Vo Nguyen Quoc Bao, Ngo Hoang Tu
arXiv Statistics ML
Sep 22

Doubly robust target inference for generalized linear regression with completely missing covariates

arXiv:2609.24086v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large-scale multipurpose cohort studies and biobanks often omit covariates needed for specific downstream analyses. We study target-population infere...

By Huali Zhao (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology), Ke Deng (Department of Statistics and Data Science, Tsinghua University)