arXiv:2607. 19147v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data-driven methods have revolutionized ocean modeling, yet current approaches rely heavily on complete reanalysis datasets, imposing computational constraints and limiting model performance to that of the training data.
arXiv:2606. 26389v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sea state prediction is essential for operational maritime applications and coupled earth system modeling, yet current spectral wave models remain computationally prohibitive for many use cases, including online coupling to climate simulations and making probabilistic (ensemble-based) predictions.
arXiv:2602. 23050v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Deep state-space models (DSSMs) enable temporal predictions by learning the underlying dynamics of observed sequence data.
Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting is societally critical, supporting decision-making in sectors ranging from water and agricultural management to disaster risk reduction, energy planning, and...
Neptune is an end‑to‑end data‑driven framework that emulates global ocean and sea‑ice states for subseasonal‑to‑seasonal (S2S) forecasting up to 60 days. It combines Convolutional Neural Networks and Spherical Fourier Neural Operators to capture both local features and global cross‑scale interactions, producing daily outputs for temperature, salinity, currents, sea‑surface height, and sea‑ice metrics at 1° and 0.25° resolution. Evaluated against metrics such as RMSE, CRPS, ACC, and climate indices (ENSO, IOD), Neptune reproduces the spatio‑temporal evolution of oceanic fields and remains stable over long timescales.
arXiv:2606. 12141v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate forecasting of sea surface temperature (SST) in regional seas such as the East Sea is crucial for monitoring marine ecosystems, assessing climate risks, managing fisheries, and conducting naval operations.
Reliable global ocean forecasting is critical for climate monitoring, marine navigation, and extreme event early warning. Physics-based ocean forecasting models impose prohibitive computational costs,...
Drift Field Net (DFN) is a deep neural network that predicts ocean surface flow fields from satellite observations, trained via a two‑stage strategy combining simulated data pretraining and Lagrangian fine‑tuning with an advection‑consistent loss. DFN improves particle trajectory forecasts, reducing mean positioning error by 20 km over a 7‑day period compared to an operational physics‑based model, and further decreasing error by 10 km when the advection loss is applied. The study demonstrates that incorporating Lagrangian constraints into deep‑learning training enhances ocean surface flow prediction accuracy.
arXiv:2609.13242v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Subgrid parametrizations of vertical mixing in ocean models depend on free coefficients that cannot be measured directly and must be calibrated again...
arXiv:2601. 17074v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate estimation in time-varying inverse problems under limited and sparse observations remains a fundamental challenge across scientific domains.
arXiv:2508. 10178v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Shelf seas are important for the economy and the carbon cycle, but shelf sea observations for carbon pools are often sparse, or highly uncertain.
The paper presents a probabilistic deep learning emulator—a ResNet‑inspired Conditional Variational Autoencoder—for the stochastic Holton–Mass model of stratospheric variability, which exhibits rare transitions between strong and weak polar vortex regimes. The emulator accurately reproduces short‑term dynamics, steady‑state distributions, regime persistence, rare transition rates, the committor function, and expected lead times. Analysis of the 32‑dimensional latent space via PCA reveals an unsupervised separation into four physically interpretable clusters that correspond to the two vortex regimes and their stable or transition‑prone states.
SimCast‑S2S is a generative latent‑diffusion model designed for probabilistic subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation forecasting. It tackles three key challenges: it uses a diffusion pipeline to capture uncertainty, operates in a compact latent space to enable efficient large‑ensemble generation, and leverages transfer learning with low‑rank adaptation to train on limited reanalysis data after pretraining on climate simulations. The model outperforms deep‑learning baselines and competes with, or surpasses, operational systems such as the ECMWF‑S2S baseline without requiring extensive post‑processing.