arXiv:2607. 14346v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Policy learning methods are increasingly used to inform treatment allocation under budget constraints.
arXiv:2606. 20206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In offline Reinforcement Learning, immediate rewards in logged batch data are often unobserved due to sparse or irregular record-keeping, or censored beyond certain reward values.
arXiv:2609.06294v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) enables efficient targeting of interventions, but many applications have limited experimental s...
arXiv:2609.13586v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We develop a causal framework for matrix completion under missing not at random (MNAR) data. Drawing on synthetic controls from the econometric panel...
arXiv:2605.04469v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large-scale population-level datasets, such as the UK Biobank and the All of Us Research Program, often lack covariates needed for a specific...
arXiv:2609.24086v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large-scale multipurpose cohort studies and biobanks often omit covariates needed for specific downstream analyses. We study target-population infere...
arXiv:2607. 28698v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Flow matching assumes fully observed training data, which many real-world applications rarely provide.
arXiv:2503. 20546v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We consider the problem of estimating the expected causal effect $E[Y|do(X)]$ for a target variable $Y$ when treatment $X$ is set by intervention, focusing on continuous random variables.
arXiv:2602. 16061v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Estimating population quantities such as mean outcomes from user feedback is fundamental to platform evaluation and social science, yet feedback is often missing not at random (MNAR): users with stronger opinions are more likely to respond, so standard estimators are biased and the estimand is not identified without additional assumptions.
arXiv:2607. 07767v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Missing values undermine statistical inference and machine learning pipelines, yet most imputation methods rely on heuristics or restrictive parametric assumptions that ignore the joint data distribution.
The paper investigates how policy learning algorithms should balance expected welfare against sampling risk in evidence-based policymaking. It demonstrates that algorithmic stability—specifically, a policy’s insensitivity to the replacement of a single experimental unit—limits sampling risk. The authors introduce policy‑vote bagging, which trains on many subsamples and averages their votes, preserving expected welfare while improving expected utility for risk‑averse researchers, and provide sharp bounds linking estimation accuracy, subsample size, and welfare variation, including an exact guarantee under CARA utility.
Large language models have been widely evaluated as simulators of individual survey responses. In practice, however, fully unobserved responses are rare; the dominant problem is partial non-response.
MInTRL (Minimal Intervention Reinforcement Learning) expands exploration in on-policy reinforcement learning by inserting sparse, local corrections into rollouts via a judge-intervention policy. These interventions replace erroneous suffixes and immediately return control to the main policy, allowing the agent to explore beyond its natural trajectory while maintaining on-policy data. The method uses a sequence-level advantage-regression objective, avoiding importance sampling, and demonstrates superior performance on math and code benchmarks compared to standard on-policy and off-policy baselines.