Synthetic Nearest Neighbors: Extending Synthetic Controls for Matrix Completion with Missing Not at Random Data
Read the original on arXiv Statistics ML →The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv Statistics ML.
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The paper introduces an assumption‑lean framework that uses AI‑generated measurements as weak shadow variables to identify and infer population quantities when data are missing not at random. Weak shadow variables are outcome‑informative proxies that are conditionally independent of missingness given the true outcome and covariates, and they do not need to predict missing outcomes accurately. The authors derive sharp bounds via linear programs and propose a localized penalized estimator with a subsampling algorithm for confidence intervals, demonstrating in semi‑synthetic experiments that the resulting intervals are substantially narrower and more accurate than classical MNAR methods.