arXiv Machine Learning

Dirichlet-Guided Group Forecasting for Alleviating Over-smoothing in Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2606. 10592v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting often suffers from over-smoothing, especially when future dynamics are multi-modal.

arXiv AI
1d ago

AsyTO: Asymmetric Temporal Operator for Parameter-Efficient Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2608. 16098v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multivariate time-series forecasting faces a structural dilemma: sharing one temporal predictor across variables is parameter-efficient but forces heterogeneous variables through an identical history-to-future map, whereas learning an independent predictor per variable restores flexibility at a cost that grows with the product of variable count, context length, and horizon.

By Xiachong Lin, Du Yin, Hao Xue, Wen Hu, Imran Razzak, Arian Prabowo, Matthew Amos, Flora D. Salim
arXiv Machine Learning
22h ago

TiMi: Empower Time Series Transformers with Multimodal Mixture of Experts

arXiv:2602. 21693v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Multimodal time series forecasting has garnered significant attention for its potential to provide more accurate predictions than traditional single-modality models by leveraging rich information inherent in other modalities.

By Jiafeng Lin, Yuxuan Wang, Huakun Luo, Jianmin Wang, Zhongyi Pei
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jun 22

Selective Time Series Forecasting via Metalearning

Deep learning methods have achieved state-of-the-art in time series forecasting, yet their accuracy varies considerably across samples, as some instances remain inherently difficult to predict. Reject option mechanisms, which allow models to abstain from high-risk predictions, are well established in classification and regression but underexplored in forecasting.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 25

TopoCast: A Topological Fidelity Framework for Evaluating Transformer-Based Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2606. 25439v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deep learning-based models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in Time Series Forecasting (TSF), yet their evaluation remains dominated by pointwise error metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), which quantify numerical accuracy but overlook structural properties of the forecast signal, including recurrent dynamics, oscillatory behavior, and phase alignment.

By Sandeepa Weerasekara, Sandareka Wickramanayake