DisCoMBO introduces the Distributional Conformance Score (DisCo), a bounded metric that blends the flexibility of Probabilistic Circuits with formal uncertainty quantification for Sequential Model-Based Optimization. DisCo measures model surprise in a [0,1] range, retaining linear-time inference while enabling accurate assessment of external knowledge conformance. The resulting DisCoMBO framework is proven to be a zero-regret algorithm and shows strong performance on benchmarks in AutoML, material optimization, and wind park optimization.
arXiv:2609.36472v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Sequential Model-Based Optimization (SMBO) traditionally relies on Bayesian or ensembling surrogates for uncertainty quantification. While historically...
arXiv:2606. 15217v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Offline model-based optimization (MBO) proposes candidates by optimizing a surrogate trained on a fixed historical dataset.
arXiv:2605. 07565v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study Bayesian Optimisation (BO) in settings where the objective function is influenced by uncontrollable environmental contexts governed by an unknown probability distribution.
arXiv:2610.22763v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bayesian optimization (BO) over discrete spaces is challenging due to missing gradients and the sparsity of valid solutions. Latent-space BO sidesteps...
arXiv:2511. 02570v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely used approach to hyperparameter optimization (HPO).
arXiv:2605. 14953v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We address the problem of conformal selection, where an agent must select a minimal subset of options to ensure that at least one ``success'' is identified with a pre-specified target probability $\phi$.
arXiv:2503.00626v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Data-driven optimization aims to translate a machine learning model into decision-making by optimizing decisions on estimated costs. Such a pipelin...
arXiv:2606. 08438v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely used approach for black-box optimization that uses a Gaussian process (GP) as a surrogate and guides sequential evaluations via an acquisition function, with the ultimate goal of locating the global optimum $\mathbf{x}^{\star}$.
arXiv:2609.01493v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Black-Box Optimization (BBO) has found broad applications, but evolutionary algorithms and Bayesian optimization face efficiency challenges as real-w...
arXiv:2610.10186v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bayesian optimization (BO) is widely used as a standard approach for expensive black-box optimization. However, BO algorithms often involve parameters...
GRAPE is a two‑stage Bayesian optimization framework that first refines the local gradient posterior using a closed‑form acquisition function and then selects update directions by maximizing expected decrease conditioned on descent. The authors prove that the refinement stage monotonically reduces local uncertainty and that the progress‑aware direction converges to true steepest descent as the posterior sharpens. Empirical results show GRAPE achieves a 5.4× speedup on black‑box adversarial attacks and reduces final average regret by 3.8 log‑units on large language model prompt‑optimization tasks.
arXiv:2607. 29225v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bayesian Optimization (BO) is widely adopted for data-efficient optimization in scientific and engineering applications, yet its computational cost is rarely evaluated alongside optimization performance.