arXiv:2606. 03919v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Understanding and anticipating scientific change requires models that distinguish between endogenous consolidation and exogenous diffusion of scientific concepts.
arXiv:2606. 03864v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce an explainable machine-learning approach that forecasts the structural precursors of scientific breakthroughs -- the emergence and intensification of links between research concepts -- by modelling how OpenAlex concept networks evolve over time.
arXiv:2607. 05401v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A small number of methodological contributions, including word2vec, the Transformer, large-scale pre-training, and reinforcement learning from human feedback, have reshaped NLP and AI research over the past decade.
arXiv:2604. 19341v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Scientific discovery often requires many cycles of proposing, testing, and refining candidate solutions.
How does research evolve, and what substrate would let us forecast where it goes next? Scientific progress is not simply a uniform accumulation of facts: ideas extend prior methods, address known limitations, realize proposed future directions, and sometimes dispute earlier claims.
arXiv:2607. 21327v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bibliometric indicators - citation counts, h-indexes, co-authorship networks - have long anchored science, technology, and innovation (STI) analytics, yet suffer from temporal lag, semantic shallowness, and an inability to capture the non-linear dynamics of contemporary knowledge ecosystems.
arXiv:2602. 20459v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Can AI systems trained on the existing scientific record forecast the advances that will follow?
arXiv:2606. 26359v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Ray Kurzweil described a thesis of accelerating returns, which is the most influential narratives in discussions of technological progress.
arXiv:2608. 11224v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Materials research advances through accumulated experience - scripts that work, protocols that are trusted, warnings attached to failed calculations or experiments, and judgement that links a new question to an old result.
arXiv:2603. 13191v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: While large language models (LLMs) have transformed AI agents into proficient executors of computational materials science, performing a hundred simulations does not make a researcher.
arXiv:2606. 12828v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Do research topics in artificial intelligence grow gradually, or do they advance through abrupt, detectable jumps?
arXiv:2604. 12243v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Identifying promising research directions in fast-moving subareas is one of the most cognitively expensive tasks in modern AI research.
arXiv:2607. 16204v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent growth in reinforcement learning (RL) has surfaced a need for diverse, specialized training environments.