The paper evaluates conditional generative surrogates used in high‑energy physics, noting that common 1D marginal divergence metrics can mistakenly reward models that ignore conditioning information. Using the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) as a more robust metric, the authors demonstrate that a simple sampler can outperform a trained Mixture Density Network on all target marginals, and that the advantage diminishes when CRPSS is evaluated within bins of the conditioning variable. They further introduce a data‑driven k‑Nearest‑Neighbor extrapolation to estimate the maximum achievable CRPSS given the conditioning information, finding that both models reach this estimate, suggesting current architectures have extracted the available conditioning information for the evaluated targets.
By Chaitanya Dumbre, Sourabh Dube
Conditional generative models have emerged as powerful tools for sampling from target conditional distributions, driving substantial advances across a wide range of scientific and applied domains. As these models proliferate, practitioners often face multiple plausible generators whose performance can vary with the task, data, or input condition.
arXiv:2609.23789v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Modern conditional generative models face significant challenges when learning complex covariate dependencies. While sufficient dimension reduction (SD...
By Wenxi Tan, Bing Li, Lingzhou Xue
arXiv:2607. 01171v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Sample-based generative models are increasingly used for probabilistic forecasting in high-stakes decision settings, yet their training objectives are blind to the decision maker's cost structure.
By Kornelius Raeth, Nicole Ludwig
arXiv:2608. 06107v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine learning offers a promising avenue to accelerate physical simulations by replacing computationally expensive traditional Partial Differential Equation (PDE) solvers with fast, differentiable surrogate models.
By Guillaume Couairon, Alexis Jacq, Yu-Han Wu, Renu Singh, Yana Hasson, Quentin Berthet, Romuald Elie
Sufficiently Reduced Distributional Regression (SRDR) is a generative approach that merges conditional distribution estimation with nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction (SDR). By framing SDR as a risk minimization problem using strictly proper scoring rules, SRDR jointly learns a dimension reduction map and a generative prediction model through minimization of the energy score, which can be estimated via sampling. The method extends to multi‑environment data and classification, and theoretical results show convergence of estimated conditional distributions in energy distance, implying asymptotic sufficiency. In experiments on CT slice localization, superconductivity data, and digit classification, SRDR recovers low‑dimensional sufficient structure and matches or surpasses state‑of‑the‑art nonlinear SDR methods in representation quality and predictive performance.
By Alexander Henzi, Tiange Liu, Xinwei Shen
Aurora‑X is a billion‑parameter time‑series foundation model designed for extreme forecasting tasks. It employs a progressive curriculum that starts with channel‑independent pretraining, then adds cross‑variable dependencies, variable context and horizon lengths, and optional future covariates during mid‑training. A variable‑resolution post‑training stage allows adjustable temporal spans per token at inference, while a pattern‑guided mixture‑of‑experts expands capacity through sparse activation and expert specialization. An implicit quantile network head predicts arbitrary quantiles, enhancing probabilistic forecasting flexibility. Experiments on GIFT‑Eval, TIME, FEV‑Bench, TFB, and DAG‑Bench show state‑of‑the‑art performance against both pretrained TSFMs and task‑specific supervised models.
By Xingjian Wu, Chenjuan Guo, Xiangfei Qiu, Zhigang Hu, Hanyin Cheng, Peng Chen, Yang Shu, Jilin Hu, Bin Yang
arXiv:2606. 04342v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-step time series forecasting (MSF) is commonly evaluated using point-wise error metrics such as mean squared error (MSE), implicitly treating the conditional mean as a sufficient target.
By Riku Green, Zahraa S. Abdallah, Telmo M Silva Filho
arXiv:2605. 12951v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We propose Coreset-Induced Conditional Velocity Flow Matching (CCVFM), a generative model that augments hierarchical rectified flow with a data-informed source distribution.
By Xiao Wang, Zihua She, Jianxi Su
arXiv:2607. 04360v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conditional generative models have emerged as powerful tools for sampling from target conditional distributions, driving substantial advances across a wide range of scientific and applied domains.
By Shijin Gong, Baihua He, Xinyu Zhang
arXiv:2608. 11544v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose CVaR-penalized Generative Particle Algorithm (CVaR-GPA), a robust, tail-agnostic algorithm for fine-tuning generative models to learn heavy-tailed distributions and capture extreme events, requiring no prior knowledge or estimation of the target's tail characteristics.
By Thejani Gamage, Hyemin Gu, Zhizhen Zhang, Ziyu Chen, Markos Katsoulakis, Luc Rey-Bellet
arXiv:2610.33822v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: A central challenge in multivariate forecasting is deciding what to share across channels and where to specialize. Mixture-of-experts models offer fl...
By Bashar Khoury, Shadi Omari, Assaf Schuster