The study benchmarks various forecasting models—including statistical, machine‑learning, recurrent neural networks, and pretrained TimesFM—for day‑ahead electricity demand in a university building. TimesFM 3.0 with weather covariates achieves the lowest overall mean absolute error, outperforming a weekly seasonal‑naive baseline by about 43%, while XGBoost remains competitive and requires only local fitting. The LSTM model takes longer to train without improving accuracy, and TimesFM’s performance is robust even without covariates, though covariates slightly improve holiday forecasts.
By Amey Vasulkar, Samuel Kernan Freire, Arie-Willem de Leeuw, Tadeo-Baldiri Salcedo-Rahola
arXiv:2604. 22328v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Driven by the transition towards a climate-neutral energy system, accurate energy time series forecasting is critical for planning and operations.
By Marco Obermeier, Marco Pruckner, Florian Haselbeck, Andreas Zeiselmair
arXiv:2610.31959v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Short-term building load forecasting remains challenging because load patterns can change rapidly with weather and operating conditions. Data-driven...
By Shiqiao Zhou, Huanbo Lyu, Holger Sch\"oner, Zipeng Wu, Jessica Deuschel, Freya Wentzel, IAG Wilson, Shuo Wang
arXiv:2606. 08896v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large-scale retail and industrial forecasting systems contain many heterogeneous time series whose lifecycle, sparsity, volatility, seasonality, spectral patterns, and contextual sensitivity differ substantially.
By Qianyang Li, Xingjun Zhang, Shaoxun Wang, Tao Peng, Jia Wei
arXiv:2610.06881v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: In this paper, a comparative review of different hybrid models for short-term forecasting of building thermal demand is carried out. Particularly, th...
By Nikolaos A. Efkarpidis, Despoina Kothona, Georgios C. Christoforidis
Large-scale retail and industrial forecasting systems contain many heterogeneous time series whose lifecycle, sparsity, volatility, seasonality, spectral patterns, and contextual sensitivity differ substantially. A single forecasting model rarely performs well across all regimes, while dense ensembles increase inference cost and provide limited insight into expert suitability.
arXiv:2603.25495v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Accurate short-term air-quality forecasting is essential for public health protection and urban management, yet many recent forecasting frame...
By Moazzam Umer Gondal, Hamad ul Qudous, Asma Ahmad Farhan, Sultan Alamri
The paper introduces a data‑onboarding pipeline that detects and repairs defects in building meter data before training machine‑learning demand‑forecasting models. Controlled experiments on hourly electricity data from twelve U.S. buildings show that the pipeline restores forecast accuracy to clean‑data levels, even when defects affect up to 1.6% of training rows, and works across multiple models and horizons. The study also documents a first‑version over‑cleaning issue, its cause, and a per‑building calibration that corrects it, with all results reproducible from publicly pinned inputs.
By Yixuan Liang
arXiv:2607. 05450v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper explores the "Granularity Paradox" in time-series forecasting, wherein finer temporal disaggregation (e.
By Hugo Moreira
arXiv:2510. 16898v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate prediction of electricity prices is crucial for stakeholders in the energy market, particularly for grid operators, energy producers, and consumers.
By Salih Salihoglu, Ibrahim Ahmed, Afshin Asadi
arXiv:2609.13840v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: A contract-logistics spare-parts operator is paid on order-level service: an order counts only if every requested line is fulfilled, yet forecasters ar...
By Joo Ern Chin, Shih-Fen Cheng, Aldy Gunawan
arXiv:2606. 17692v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate short-term electricity load forecasting is critical for the reliable and economic operation of modern power systems, under non-stationarity arising from weather variability, calendar effects, and evolving consumption patterns.
By Vansh Bansal