The paper investigates whether generative deep learning models can nowcast aerosol particle size distributions (PSDs) from routine PM2.5 measurements and meteorological data. Using data from two Finnish stations—Hyytiälä (boreal forest) and Kumpula (urban)—the authors benchmark six generative models against deterministic and climatological baselines, finding that flow matching, especially its guided variant, achieves the lowest continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). Incorporating a physics-based constraint derived from a reduced aerosol general dynamic equation further improves performance, reducing CRPS by 5.5–11.5% at the training site and improving transferability between sites.
By Zhi-Song Liu, Jenni K\"oykk\"a, Wenqing Peng, Ammar Kheder, Petri Clusius, Michael Boy
Rare weather regime transitions pose a challenge for data-driven modeling due to class imbalance. In this study, we develop a probabilistic deep learning emulator for a prototypical system with regime...
The paper presents a probabilistic deep learning emulator—a ResNet‑inspired Conditional Variational Autoencoder—for the stochastic Holton–Mass model of stratospheric variability, which exhibits rare transitions between strong and weak polar vortex regimes. The emulator accurately reproduces short‑term dynamics, steady‑state distributions, regime persistence, rare transition rates, the committor function, and expected lead times. Analysis of the 32‑dimensional latent space via PCA reveals an unsupervised separation into four physically interpretable clusters that correspond to the two vortex regimes and their stable or transition‑prone states.
By C. Daniel Boscu, Daniel Hernandez, Fabio Alvarez Ventura, Justin Finkel, Ashesh Chattopadhyay, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Dorian S. Abbot
arXiv:2610.08475v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: In many-query scenarios, data-driven surrogate models provide an efficient alternative to high-fidelity solvers for simulating physical systems governe...
By Stefano Maria Pizzamiglio, Stefano Pagani, Francesco Regazzoni
arXiv:2609.37392v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Modeling the temporal evolution of macroscopic properties of complex systems is an important scientific task. To predict this evolution without full mi...
By Zhichao Han, Yue Zhao, Qianxiao Li
The paper introduces an explainable contrastive learning model that maps five monthly cloud and radiation fields into a shared representation space to analyze perturbed parameter ensembles (PPEs) in climate simulations. Trained on two 100-member Community Atmosphere Model version 6 PPEs differing only in the warm rain microphysics scheme (KK2000 vs. TAU-ML), the model achieves over 94% linear classification accuracy while preserving seasonal variability and ensemble spread. The learned representations place satellite observations on the same low‑dimensional manifold as the PPEs, with TAU-ML PPE closer to observations, and Integrated Gradients attribution identifies key regional contributions linked to cloud microphysics, boundary layer turbulence, and deep convection.
By Da Fan, David John Gagne II, Gregory S Elsaesser, Brian Medeiros, Addisu G Semie, Qingyuan Yang, Akila Sampath, Subashree Venkatasubramanian
arXiv:2510. 25306v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Partial physical knowledge--governing structures known, constitutive relations or their combinations not--pervades spatiotemporal systems.
By Xizhe Wang, Xiaobin Song, Hongbo Zhao, Qingshan Jia, Qianchuan Zhao, Hao Sun, Benben Jiang
SimCast‑S2S is a generative latent‑diffusion model designed for probabilistic subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation forecasting. It tackles three key challenges: it uses a diffusion pipeline to capture uncertainty, operates in a compact latent space to enable efficient large‑ensemble generation, and leverages transfer learning with low‑rank adaptation to train on limited reanalysis data after pretraining on climate simulations. The model outperforms deep‑learning baselines and competes with, or surpasses, operational systems such as the ECMWF‑S2S baseline without requiring extensive post‑processing.
By Hiep V. Dang, Antonios Mamalakis
arXiv:2609.24882v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Hybrid AI-physics climate modeling aims to improve coarse (~100km-resolution) Earth system models by learning to parameterize subgrid processes from hi...
By Jurij Sch\"onfeld, Tom Beucler, Julien Savre, Steven Sherwood, Veronika Eyring
The paper introduces a neural‑network based local‑box chemical kinetics solver for exoplanet atmospheres, employing a residual flow‑map architecture. It achieves microsecond‑scale inference with percent‑level accuracy across a wide range of temperatures, pressures, time steps, and compositional variations, outperforming other machine‑learning models and handling the extreme stiffness of atmospheric chemistry. The surrogate model offers a flexible, efficient alternative to classical solvers for state‑to‑state flow‑map problems in numerical simulations.
By Isaac Malsky, Xi Zhang, Tiffany Kataria, Matthew Graham, Ziyu Huang, Boris Bonev, Shang-Min Tsai, Elspeth K. H. Lee
SimCast‑S2S is a generative latent‑diffusion framework designed for probabilistic subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation forecasting. It tackles three key challenges: it uses a diffusion‑based generative pipeline for uncertainty quantification, operates in a compact latent space learned by VAEs for efficient large‑ensemble generation, and employs transfer learning with LoRA to overcome limited training data. On reanalysis data, it outperforms deep‑learning baselines and competes with or surpasses state‑of‑the‑art operational systems such as ECMWF‑S2S.
By Hiep V. Dang, Antonios Mamalakis
arXiv:2601.21151v3 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Machine-learning approaches to weather forecasting often employ a monolithic architecture in which distinct physical mechanisms, such as advection,...
By Carlos A. Pereira, St\'ephane Gaudreault, Valentin Dallerit, Christopher Subich, Shoyon Panday, Siqi Wei, Sasa Zhang, Siddharth Rout, Eldad Haber, Raymond J. Spiteri, David Millard