arXiv AI

AdaST: Adaptive Coupling for Spatial-Temporal Forecasting

arXiv AI
Jun 30

UniMamba: A Unified Spatial-Temporal Modeling Framework with State-Space and Attention Integration

arXiv:2604. 16325v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Multivariate time series forecasting is fundamental to numerous domains such as energy, finance, and environmental monitoring, where complex temporal dependencies and cross-variable interactions pose enduring challenges.

By Xingsheng Chen, Xianpei Mu, Deyu Yi, Yilin Yuan, Xingwei He, Bo Gao, Regina Zhang, Pietro Lio, Siu-Ming Yiu
arXiv AI
Sep 18

FedeRICo: Federated Region-Influenced Coupling for Traffic Flow Prediction

FedeRICo is a federated traffic forecasting framework that addresses heterogeneity across client sensor subgraphs by combining gradient-level collaboration with boundary-aware residual communication. It uses a dual-branch architecture: a globally guided branch for transferable forecasting structure and a private residual branch that preserves client-specific corrections and incorporates boundary residual signals. Experiments on four real-world traffic benchmarks show that FedeRICo outperforms state‑of‑the‑art federated spatial‑temporal baselines while keeping training runtime competitive.

By Fermin Orozco, Man Luo, Johan Wahlstr\"om
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 10

Interpretable deep convolutional model for nonlinear multivariate time series in complex systems

arXiv:2501. 04339v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We introduce the Deep Convolutional Interpreter for Time Series (DCIts), a deep-learning architecture for nonlinear multivariate time series that provides sample-specific, locally interpretable descriptions of the underlying interaction structure.

By Domjan Baric, Davor Horvatic
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 27

Modeling spatio-temporal locality in multi-step forecasting of geo-referenced time series

The paper introduces SPALT, a method that models spatio‑temporal locality for multi‑step forecasting of geo‑referenced time series. SPALT uses linear model trees to group series with similar trends, injecting spatial features locally, and employs a Reduced Error Pruning strategy that respects spatio‑temporal locality. Experiments on three real‑world renewable‑energy datasets show SPALT outperforms both tree‑based models and state‑of‑the‑art neural networks in forecasting energy production at multiple horizons.

By Annunziata D'Aversa, Gianvito Pio, Michelangelo Ceci
arXiv AI
Sep 15

STHMoE: Hypergraph-Enhanced Heterogeneous Dependency Coordination for LLM-Based Urban Traffic Data Forecasting

STHMoE is a Spatio‑Temporal Hypergraph‑Enhanced Mixture of Experts framework designed for urban traffic forecasting. It separates traffic dynamics into frequency‑, time‑, spatial‑, and higher‑order representations, each handled by a prompt‑guided expert built on a partially frozen large language model. The higher‑order expert uses an adaptive hypergraph module to learn evolving spatial structures, while an entropy‑aware router balances expert usage and fuses outputs, achieving competitive results on ten real‑world traffic benchmarks.

By Jiawen Chen, Qi Shao, Yongjian Chang, Mingtong Zhou, Duxin Chen, Wenwu Yu
arXiv Statistics ML
2d ago

STCFormer: Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Modeling with Dynamic Cluster Transformer for Station-based Weather Forecasting

STCFormer is an adaptive spatio‑temporal Transformer that dynamically clusters weather stations within each temporal patch, combining fine‑grained local attention inside clusters with global attention over regional summaries. The model’s design is supported by a Lipschitz upper bound that suggests robustness benefits, and it achieves the lowest 24‑hour mean squared error across eight temperature and wind forecasting tasks on three real‑world datasets, ranking first or second in 47 of 48 comparisons. Ablation studies and case analyses confirm the advantages of locally adaptive grouping and complementary local‑global interactions.

By Rongwen Li, Haixin Xie, Mingyang Wang, Hongwu Liu, Kun Fang, Changjian Chen, Zhuo Tang, Kenli Li