arXiv:2601. 07944v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Since the turn of the century, approximate Bayesian inference has steadily evolved as new computational techniques have been incorporated to handle increasingly complex, large-scale predictive problems.
By Roy Shivam Ram Shreshtth, Arnab Hazra, Gourab Mukherjee
arXiv:2512. 22999v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We consider problems of parameter estimation where design variables can be actively optimized to maximize information gain.
By Niels Bracher, Lars K\"uhmichel, Desi R. Ivanova, Xavier Intes, Paul-Christian B\"urkner, Stefan T. Radev
arXiv:2608. 08644v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We consider the problem of sampling compositional and discrete objects from a given unnormalized posterior distribution.
By Tiago da Silva, Esmeralda S. Whitammer, Salem Lahlou
arXiv:2504. 01894v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present a bifidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution.
By Caroline Tatsuoka, Minglei Yang, Dongbin Xiu, Guannan Zhang
We consider the problem of sampling compositional and discrete objects from a given unnormalized posterior distribution. Notably, recent studies have shown that this problem can be efficiently solved by learning a deterministic Markov Decision Process (MDP) that progressively builds each object in proportion to the posterior.
One of the primary challenges in Bayesian inference on the parameters of a diffusion model from discrete observations is the unavailability of an analytical expression for the transition density function between consecutive observation times, which is needed to derive the likelihood function. Extending previous studies that solve Fokker-Planck (FP) type partial differential equations with Normalizing Flows, we propose a new Normalizing Flow architecture to learn the transition density function of the diffusion process between two observation times.
arXiv:2502. 07580v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present a novel view of diffusion-like generative modeling from the perspective of iterative Gaussian posterior inference.
By Marten Lienen, Marcel Kollovieh, Stephan G\"unnemann
arXiv:2606. 04324v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: One of the primary challenges in Bayesian inference on the parameters of a diffusion model from discrete observations is the unavailability of an analytical expression for the transition density function between consecutive observation times, which is needed to derive the likelihood function.
By Riccardo Saporiti, Fabio Nobile
arXiv:2407. 20432v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Bayesian inference methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) typically require repeated computations of the likelihood function, but in some scenarios this is infeasible and alternative methods are needed.
By Linnea M Wolniewicz, Peter Sadowski, Claudio Corti
arXiv:2512. 20685v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Diffusion models have recently emerged as powerful learners for simulation-based inference (SBI), enabling fast and accurate estimation of latent parameters from simulated and real data.
By Jonas Arruda, Niels Bracher, Ullrich K\"othe, Jan Hasenauer, Stefan T. Radev
arXiv:2603. 24705v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Discrete choice models are fundamental tools in management science, economics, and marketing for understanding and predicting decision-making.
By Easton Huch, Michael Keane
arXiv:2602. 09161v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables amortized Bayesian inference by first training a neural posterior estimator (NPE) on prior-simulator pairs, typically through low-dimensional summary statistics, which can then be cheaply reused for fast inference by querying it on new test observations.
By Sherman Khoo, Dennis Prangle, Song Liu, Mark Beaumont