arXiv:2601. 02322v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A common approach to out-of-distribution prediction restricts models to causal or invariant covariates to avoid spurious associations that may change across environments.
arXiv:2602. 17187v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The problem of domain generalization concerns learning predictive models that are robust to distribution shifts when deployed in new, previously unseen environments.
The paper introduces a causal framework for concept drift, using Structural Causal Models to classify drift events by their causal origin—exogenous variables, endogenous mechanisms, confounders, and target-generating processes. It presents an SCM-based data stream generator that simulates controlled mechanism-level drift, and empirically shows that different causal origins produce distinct distribution shifts and predictive behaviors. By integrating causal discovery, the authors create realistic data streams that improve downstream performance and provide a foundation for causally-aware evaluation in non‑stationary settings.
arXiv:2609.40051v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating causal effects from observational data is central to science and policy, but the effects are not identified when confounders are unmeasured....
arXiv:2603. 15158v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Addressing the domain adaptation problem becomes more challenging when distribution shifts across domains stem from latent confounders that affect both covariates and outcomes.
arXiv:2607. 14940v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study causal inference under outcome interference for sequential, observational settings.
The paper introduces a model‑agnostic inference framework for partially identified causal effects that leverages covariate information without requiring discrete covariates or accurate conditional distribution estimates. Using duality theory for optimal transport, the method delivers uniformly valid inference in randomized experiments, is doubly robust in observational settings, achieves asymptotic unbiasedness when nuisance parameters converge semiparametrically, and allows multiplier‑bootstrap selection of covariates and models while remaining computationally efficient. Empirical applications show the approach consistently narrows identified sets and confidence intervals without imposing extra structural assumptions.
arXiv:2607. 19866v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Discovering the direct causes and effects of a target variable from observational data is a fundamental problem in causal discovery, with broad applications in domains such as gene regulatory analysis and biomedical research.
arXiv:2606. 05365v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We consider multi-environment prediction problems.
arXiv:2507. 14661v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Semi-supervised domain adaptation (SSDA) seeks to achieve accurate predictions in a target domain with limited labeled target data by exploiting abundant source and unlabeled target data.
The paper introduces a mixture‑learning framework for causal inference with unobserved confounding, treating latent confounders as sources of heterogeneity that create mixture structures in observed data. By assuming suitable structural and identifiability conditions, it shows that recovering the mixing distribution and component mechanisms allows estimation of interventional distributions and causal estimands. The authors illustrate the approach with Bernoulli mixture examples, extend it to high‑dimensional exponential‑family mixtures with dependent outcomes, and relate it to panel‑data settings, latent factor models, and synthetic interventions.
arXiv:2607. 11508v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal discovery, the process of recovering underlying causal structures from observational data, is a fundamental pursuit across scientific disciplines.
arXiv:2606. 14506v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Understanding how a prediction model will perform in a new environment before deployment is essential to preventing harm when algorithms inform decision-making.