arXiv Machine Learning

Distribution-Free Conformal Prediction for Steel Fatigue Strength: Marginal Validity Is Not Enough

arXiv:2608. 07589v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting fatigue failure in steel components experimentally is costly because it requires testing across multiple compositions and processing conditions.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 21

Isotonic Conformal Prediction

arXiv:2607. 16675v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A point prediction that is well calibrated on average can still be systematically biased conditional on its own value, undermining its use in downstream decision-making.

By Daniel Bensimon, Sean Xiang Yu, Eric D. Kolaczyk, Archer Y. Yang
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 1

Conformalized Regression for Continuous Bounded Outcomes

arXiv:2507. 14023v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Regression problems with bounded continuous outcomes frequently arise in statistical and machine learning applications, such as the analysis of rates and proportions.

By Zhanli Wu, Fabrizio Leisen, F. Javier Rubio
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 1

On Optimal Data Splitting for Split Conformal Prediction

arXiv:2606. 31600v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction and its variants, including the split conformal prediction, provide a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction intervals or sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees.

By Sayan Das, Bahram Yaghooti, Todd A. Kuffner, Soumendra N. Lahiri
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Aug 11

Retrieval-Corrected Conformal Prediction for Time Series

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction intervals for fixed forecasters, but its standard calibration procedure is often inefficient for time series data, where forecast errors are temporally dependent and change across time and operating conditions. Recent time series CP methods improve local calibration using recent, weighted, or localized residuals.

arXiv AI
Aug 12

Retrieval-Corrected Conformal Prediction for Time Series

arXiv:2608. 10553v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction intervals for fixed forecasters, but its standard calibration procedure is often inefficient for time series data, where forecast errors are temporally dependent and change across time and operating conditions.

By Sangjin Jin, Kangmin Kim, Junhyeong Lee, Yongjae Lee