arXiv AI

Regression-adjusted Monte Carlo Estimators for Shapley Values and Probabilistic Values

The paper introduces a novel method that merges Monte Carlo sampling with linear regression to estimate probabilistic values such as Shapley and Banzhaf values. It generalizes previous algorithms by allowing any efficiently computable function family, enabling the use of tree-based models like XGBoost and cross‑fitting for unbiased estimates. Experiments on eight datasets show the approach achieves state‑of‑the‑art accuracy, reducing error by up to 11× for Shapley values and 390× for general probabilistic values compared to existing methods.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 2

ShaplEIG: Bayesian Experimental Design for Shapley Value Estimation

arXiv:2606. 02247v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Shapley values are a principled attribution measure widely used in interpretable machine learning, but their exact computation scales exponentially with the number of players, motivating a wide range of approximation methods based on value function evaluations of sampled coalitions.

By David Rundel, Fabian Fumagalli, Maximilian Muschalik, Bernd Bischl, Matthias Feurer
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 5

Prediction-Enhanced Monte Carlo: A Machine Learning View on Control Variate

arXiv:2412. 11257v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: For many complex simulation tasks spanning areas such as healthcare, engineering, and finance, Monte Carlo (MC) methods are invaluable due to their unbiased estimates and precise error quantification.

By Fengpei Li, Haoxian Chen, Jiahe Lin, Arkin Gupta, Xiaowei Tan, Honglei Zhao, Gang Xu, Yuriy Nevmyvaka, Agostino Capponi, Henry Lam
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 29

QuadraSHAP: $\epsilon$-Exact Shapley Values for Product Games in Logarithmic Parallel Time

QuadraSHAP is a method for computing ε-exact Shapley values in product games, where coalition values factor across players. It replaces the exponential coalition sum with a one-dimensional polynomial integral, using Gauss–Legendre quadrature to achieve exact values when ε = 0 and provides a computable error bound for ε > 0. The approach supports weighted sums of product games, enabling baseline and empirical interventional attribution for models such as log-link regression, Cox models, odds-scale classifiers, product-kernel machines, and tree-based models, and achieves logarithmic parallel time with efficient GPU evaluation even for hundreds of thousands of features.

By Majid Mohammadi, Grigory Reznikov, Pavel Sinitcyn, Krikamol Muandet, Siu Lun Chau
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 16

Priority-Aware Shapley Value

arXiv:2602. 09326v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Shapley values are widely used for model-agnostic data valuation and feature attribution, yet they implicitly assume contributors are interchangeable.

By Kiljae Lee, Ziqi Liu, Weijing Tang, Yuan Zhang
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 9

Interval-valued SHAP in Tree-Based Models

The paper introduces an imprecise Dirichlet model (IDM) approach to evaluate the robustness of Shapley values in tree-based models such as decision trees and random forests. By quantifying interval-valued Shapley values—using pessimistic and averaging principles—when a few unannotated instances are added to tree leaves, the authors derive efficient computational methods and extend the framework to Banzhaf values. Experiments and case studies demonstrate how these interval-valued explanations can be applied to debias uninformative features.

By Chenrui Zhu, Vu-Linh Nguyen, Marie-H\'el\`ene Masson, S\'ebastien Destercke