The study evaluates how forecast lead time influences the effectiveness of outage predictions for crew deployment using AI weather models GraphCast and FourCastNet. It finds that the ability to capture outage burden decreases with longer lead times, with a notable drop between three and five days. Early deployment with all requested crews outperforms late deployment with fewer crews, and the study also examines the impact of antecedent land surface predictors and calibration of prediction intervals for tropical cyclone events.
By Mohammad Kian Golkar, Luciano Alves de Oliveira, Mohamad Alipour
The paper introduces Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that learns to correct historical probabilistic forecasts, thereby reducing systematic errors in subseasonal weather predictions. Applied to leading dynamical and AI models from ECMWF, PBC doubles the AI system’s modest subseasonal skill and improves the operationally-debiased dynamical model for most pressure, temperature, and precipitation targets. In ECMWF’s 2025 real‑time forecasting competition, PBC’s global forecasts ranked first across all weather variables and lead times, outperforming multiple operational and ensemble models.
By Hannah Guan, Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein, Judah Cohen, Haiyu Dong, Zekun Ni, Jeremy Berman, Genevieve Flaspohler, Alex Lu, Jakob Schloer, Joshua Talib, Jonathan A. Weyn, Lester Mackey
arXiv:2604. 16238v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes.
By Hannah Guan, Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein, Judah Cohen, Haiyu Dong, Zekun Ni, Jeremy Berman, Genevieve Flaspohler, Alex Lu, Jakob Schloer, Joshua Talib, Jonathan A. Weyn, Lester Mackey
The study evaluates probabilistic AI weather models—GenCast, FourCastNet 3, and FGN—against the ECMWF IFS-ENS ensemble for tropical cyclone forecasting. Using new probabilistic metrics, the authors find that AI models, particularly FGN, outperform IFS-ENS in cyclone tracking, achieving better location scores for 90% of storms in 2025. The analysis also identifies intensity and spread limitations, model‑specific failure modes, and the influence of pretraining data, highlighting opportunities for targeted improvement.
By Nathan Chalumeau, Xavier Renard, Remi Meynadier, Hugo Rakotoarimanga, Marcin Detyniecki, Emmanuel de Bezenac
The paper presents Laxmi, a retrained version of the AIFS weather model that uses satellite-based precipitation observations instead of ERA5 reanalysis data. Laxmi achieves a 19% improvement in global probabilistic accuracy, reduces drizzle overprediction by 33%, and boosts the 95th percentile Brier skill score by 57%. In a case study of 10 Indian tropical storms, Laxmi accurately forecasted 150 mm event-total precipitation in 7 events, outperforming both the original AIFS and the leading physical model IFS.
By Julian F. Schmitt, Bertrand Delorme, Robert C. King, Yashica Patodia, Tapio Schneider, Aditi Sheshadri, Ravi Jain
arXiv:2608.28628v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Compound drought-to-extreme-precipitation (CDEP) events are recognized in climate science as a growing driver of extreme impact, but whether this recog...
By Zhuoran Li, Weiyi Kong, Boer Zhang
arXiv:2607. 24588v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Early warning of extreme weather is essential for mitigating the societal, economic, and environmental risks posed by hazardous weather events.
By Hang Ni, Weijia Zhang, Fan Liu, Mengqian Lu, Hao Liu
arXiv:2605. 20494v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Reliable assessment of tropical cyclone risk is limited by the short and spatially uneven historical record, especially for rare, high-intensity landfalls that dominate insured loss.
By Jennifer Nakamura, Upmanu Lall
arXiv:2608. 09959v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: AI weather models are in the process of revolutionising weather forecasting.
By Anna Allen, Wessel P. Bruinsma, Michael Maier-Gerber, Harrison Cook, Matthew Chantry, Richard E. Turner
arXiv:2610. 38225v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Real-world forecasting often requires integrating heterogeneous evidence whose predictive value varies across horizons, operating regimes, and domains.
By Madumita Karthikeyan, Umang Rajnikant Bid, Rong Pan
arXiv:2607. 23983v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Operational flood forecasting depends on tacit forecaster expertise that is difficult to formalize, audit, and transfer.
By Qingyi Yang, Siqian Qiu, Bing Li, Xu Shan, Jia Feng, Shunan Zhou, Xudong Zhou, Tiantian Xing, Jiale Guo, Xiaoyi Dong, Gaoyu Liu, Xiaohuan Liu, Haiqing Pu, Qingwen Deng, Xun Zhang, Zhongrun Xiang, Haiyang Qian, Ying Yan, Yongkang Xu, Nuo Lei, Tianlong Jia, Baoying Shan, Carlo De Michele
arXiv:2607. 21597v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Evaluating wildfire risk systems using standard machine-learning metrics such as F1-score or IoU is fundamentally flawed: these metrics assess event prediction accuracy, not the operational coherence of a continuous risk signal.
By Nicolas Caron, Christophe Guyeux, Hassan Noura, Maxime Coulmeau, Benjamin Aynes