arXiv Machine Learning

Predicting Dose-Response Success from Primary Screening Data

The study explores whether inexpensive three‑point primary‑screening data can predict the success of more costly 11‑point dose‑response experiments in determining compound potency (pXC50). Using a dataset of 32,971 compound‑assay pairs, random‑forest models achieved an AUROC of 0.939 and successfully identified 90% of reportable potencies while reducing follow‑up profiling to 55.7% of historically promoted pairs. The results indicate that primary‑screen response features, especially response amplitude, are more predictive of dose‑response quantifiability than molecular structure features.

arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 28

Predicting Quantifiability from Primary Screens to Prioritize Dose-Response Profiling

The paper introduces a framework to predict whether a compound’s potency can be quantified in dose‑response profiling, treating quantifiability as a separate triage goal from biological activity. It shows that features from low‑cost primary screens, rather than molecular structure, strongly predict quantifiability, and that this prediction holds across new chemical scaffolds and assay families. The authors argue that incorporating quantifiability predictions can better allocate expensive dose‑response resources.

By Sean Lim
arXiv Machine Learning
5d ago

D2ML: Models for Direct-to-Biology Small Molecule Screening

The paper introduces D2ML, a set of machine‑learning models designed for Direct‑to‑Biology (D2B) small‑molecule screening. These assay‑aware models predict activity from single‑point screens, relative potency across targets from crude dose‑response assays, and absolute potency from purified‑compound measurements, and a joint model that shares information across stages improves predictions, especially for crude dose‑response selectivity. Using these models, the authors guided the synthesis of 84 new compounds that extended the Pareto front of potency and selectivity, achieving a ROS1 IC₅₀ of 14.7 nM with 233‑fold selectivity over TRKB, surpassing the best training compound.

By AkshatKumar Nigam, Neri Amara, Hillary Dequina, Dyana Kenanova, Seth Malmersjo, Fiorella Ruggiu, Raymond V. Fucini, Jack Sadowsky, Stig K. Hansen, Imran S. Haque
arXiv AI
Sep 4

Analysis of Prompt Engineering for Drug Toxicity Prediction

The paper investigates how the phrasing of prompts affects large language models (LLMs) in predicting drug toxicity. By varying job role, prompt structure, and rule interpretation, the authors found that natural variability in LLM outputs outweighs fine‑tuning of prompts. However, incorporating chemoinformatic code to extract features significantly improved model performance, suggesting that prompt engineering alone is insufficient for reliable toxicity prediction.

By Mia MacGregor, Aakash Welgamage Don, Mark Bartlett
arXiv AI
Oct 19

DrugHarness: An Evolvable Agent Harness for Computational Drug Discovery

arXiv:2610.23791v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Computational drug discovery requires agents to compose scientific operations and adapt to changing evidence and constraints. Here we introduce DrugHar...

By Yuxing Chen, Zhisheng Zhang, Cheng Tang, Wei Li, Minghui Zhang, Ziyan Huang, Shaocong Wei, Jiawei Chen, Junru Hu, Hongze Zhu, Jianghan Shen, Min Cen, Xinyuan Zhu, Yaxue Zhao, Jubo Wang, Yuqiang Li, Chun-Mei Feng, Zongyuan Ge, Rui Su, Jie Xu, Yirong Chen, Xi Xu, Ming Hu
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 9

A Quiet Failure in Calibrated Virtual Screening: Marginal Conformal Prediction Under-Covers the Minority Class, and a Class-Conditional Fix Recovers It

arXiv:2607. 06605v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal prediction is being adopted in drug discovery to put an honest number on model reliability: pick an error rate alpha, and the method returns prediction sets containing the true label with probability at least 1 - alpha.

By Muhammadjon Tursunbadalov (School of Science and Technology, Champions College Prep, United States), Mustafojon Tursunbadalov (School of Science and Technology, Champions College Prep, United States)
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 16

Beyond Fixed Acquisition Functions: Temporal Difference Active Learning for Perturbation Discovery

The paper introduces Temporal Difference Active Learning (TDAL), a method that learns an acquisition function online for perturbation discovery by treating the problem as a sequential decision task. TDAL uses temporal difference learning with the Hellinger distance to weight future value and employs leave‑batch‑out to create virtual transitions, thereby addressing data scarcity. Evaluated on eight public screens involving single, double, and triple perturbations, TDAL outperforms eleven baseline methods, achieving an average rank of 1.63 and topping four tasks.

By Xudong Zhang, Jianzhe Li, Yitong Tang, Peijie Zhou