Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled sophisticated reasoning and content generation, yet their inherent stochasticity poses significant challenges for ensuring predictive credibility. While traditional uncertainty taxonomy paradigms, such as the dichotomy of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, provide conceptual foundations, they often fail to capture the multi-component and multi-stage nature of LLM generation and struggle to evaluate the effectiveness of various Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods.
arXiv:2603. 24929v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Understanding and quantifying uncertainty in large language model (LLM) outputs is critical for reliable deployment.
By Farhan Ahmed, Yuya Jeremy Ong, Chad DeLuca
arXiv:2508. 09904v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Real-world forecasting requires models to integrate not only historical data but also relevant contextual information provided in textual form.
By Arjun Ashok, Andrew Robert Williams, Vincent Zhihao Zheng, Irina Rish, Nicolas Chapados, \'Etienne Marcotte, Valentina Zantedeschi, Alexandre Drouin
arXiv:2602. 15327v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine learning model performance improvements tend to arise from competition and application.
By Hanlin Zhang, Jikai Jin, Vasilis Syrgkanis, Sham Kakade
arXiv:2606. 09856v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Post-training Large Language Models (LLMs) for reasoning typically focuses on deductive tasks such as mathematics and coding where correctness is verifiable.
By Liyi Zhang, Akshay K. Jagadish, Brenden M. Lake, Thomas L. Griffiths
arXiv:2507. 06722v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Understanding how large language models (LLMs) internally represent and process their predictions is central to detecting uncertainty and preventing hallucinations.
By Sunwoo Kim, Haneul Yoo, Alice Oh
arXiv:2602.03318v4 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Operations Research (OR) relies on expert-driven modeling--a slow and fragile process ill-suited to novel scenarios. While large language models (L...
By Yifan Shi, Jiayi Wang, Minyi Wu, Ye Fan, Jialong Shi, Jianyong Sun
Chain of Operators (CHOP) is a framework that enables frozen scientific foundation models to tackle out‑of‑distribution (OOD) tasks without any parameter updates. By leveraging In‑Context Operator Networks (ICON), CHOP breaks down unfamiliar problems into sequences of explicit mathematical operations and model calls, effectively translating OOD queries into the model’s learned regime. Experiments on PDE benchmarks and air‑quality forecasting show that CHOP consistently reduces inference errors while maintaining full interpretability and cross‑equation generalization.
By Minghui Yang, Chenghan Wu, Ling Guo, Liu Yang
GUPO: Gradient Uncertainty-aware Policy Optimization for Post-Training Large Language Models proposes a new method for fine‑tuning LLMs after training. The approach models each group gradient as a random variable, estimates its probability distribution, and uses Dirichlet‑based gradient uncertainty to weight each group’s contribution during policy updates. Experiments on multiple benchmarks show that this uncertainty‑aware aggregation improves the effectiveness of post‑training policy optimization.
By Peizheng Guo, Jianqi Zhang, Xingyu Zhang, Yun Fan, Jiahuan Zhou, Changwen Zheng, Wenwen Qiang
arXiv:2607. 18256v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Optimization modeling is the process of translating real-world decision problems, often described in natural language, into formal mathematical formulations and executable solver code.
By Hongliang Lu, Zhong Li, Yuxuan Chen, Yuan Lan, Fan Zhang, Zaiwen Wen
arXiv:2605. 21751v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Text-to-optimization requires two separable capabilities: modeling -- choosing the right optimization structure -- and binding -- grounding every coefficient, index, and parameter in the concrete problem data.
By Zhiqi Gao, Albert Ge, Alexander Berenbeim, Nathaniel D. Bastian, Frederic Sala
arXiv:2608. 19611v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLM reasoning is stochastic, and so understanding a model requires grappling with the distribution of reasoning chains that it might produce for a given question, i.
By Eric Bigelow, Amir Zur, Satchel Grant, Tal Haklay, Can Rager, Owen Lewis, Thomas McGrath, Jack Merullo, Ekdeep Singh Lubana, Atticus Geiger