arXiv:2606. 10868v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-horizon autoregressive forecasting of oscillatory physical signals, such as seismograms, gravitational-wave strain, and similar wavefields is limited by error accumulation: as a causal model is fed its own outputs over hundreds of steps, small per-step errors compound into phase drift that pointwise metrics fail to detect.
By Waleed Esmail, Stuart Russell, Jana Klinge, Alexander Kappes, Christine Thomas
arXiv:2606. 10069v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In this paper we build upon a previous study in which we demonstrated, using XGBoost and earthquake catalogue data from Japan and Chile, that a set of 60 seismic statistical features (SSFs) had much greater predictive value than a set of 428 generic time series features from the tsfresh package.
By Wei Quan, Denise Gorse
arXiv:2406. 14399v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The development of Time-Series Forecasting (TSF) models is often constrained by the lack of comprehensive datasets, especially in Global Station Weather Forecasting (GSWF), where existing datasets are small, temporally short, and spatially sparse.
By Tao Han, Zhibin Wen, Zhenghao Chen, Dazhao Du, Song Guo, Lei Bai
arXiv:2606. 07725v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Displacement time series from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are essential for a wide range of applications, including monitoring tectonic crustal deformations and investigating the different stages of the earthquake cycle.
By Nick Teutschmann (Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry, ETH Zurich, Switzerland), Laura Crocetti (Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry, ETH Zurich, Switzerland), Fanny Lehmann (ETH AI Center, Switzerland), Leonardo Trentini (Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry, ETH Zurich, Switzerland), Benedikt Soja (Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
arXiv:2606. 10069v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this paper we build upon a previous study in which we demonstrated, using XGBoost and earthquake catalogue data from Japan and Chile, that a set of 60 seismic statistical features (SSFs) had much greater predictive value than a set of 428 generic time series features from the tsfresh package.
By Wei Quan, Denise Gorse
arXiv:2606. 25439v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deep learning-based models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in Time Series Forecasting (TSF), yet their evaluation remains dominated by pointwise error metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), which quantify numerical accuracy but overlook structural properties of the forecast signal, including recurrent dynamics, oscillatory behavior, and phase alignment.
By Sandeepa Weerasekara, Sandareka Wickramanayake
arXiv:2607. 16080v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Precipitation nowcasting over the immediate 10-90 min period is important for flood management and real-time decision-making in urban regions.
By Akshay Sunil, Muhammed Rashid, Raja Sekhar Sivaraju, Sushma Nair, Subimal Ghosh
arXiv:2606. 19026v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecast errors in high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are often linked to unresolved planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, convection, terrain-induced circulations, and other vertically structured atmospheric phenomena.
By David Aaron Evans, Jay C. Rothenberger, Kara J. Sulia, Nick P. Bassill, Chris D. Thorncroft
arXiv:2606. 08563v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While global data-driven models excel at predicting continuous atmospheric variables, three-dimensional hydrometeor forecasting remains challenging due to the zero-inflated, long-tailed distributions of these variables.
By Dandan Chen, Yaqiang Wang
arXiv:2606. 18857v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine-learning emulators are increasingly used for weather prediction and have the potential to extend skill on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales by learning dynamically important sources of predictability.
By Oskar Bohn Lassen, Simon Driscoll, Stephen I. Thomson, Sebastian Schemm, Francisco C. Pereira
arXiv:2607. 05100v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons.
By Jakob Schloer, Steffen Tietsche, Christopher D. Roberts, Lorenzo Zampieri, Simon Lang, Gert Mertes, Gareth Jones, Matthew Chantry, Frederic Vitart
arXiv:2608. 11623v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have spurred cross-modal solutions for time-series forecasting.
By Rentao Gu, Yihang Ding, Junjie Li, Yi Ding, Weijing Sang, Xiaoli Huo, Xin Qin, Yuefeng Ji