arXiv AI

Uncertainty-Aware Probabilistic Constrained Clustering from Entangled Pairwise Supervision

arXiv:2608. 12027v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Pairwise constrained clustering typically relies on hard must-link/cannot-link labels, whereas realistic pairwise supervision may be real-valued and entangle intrinsic ambiguity, expert judgment, and stochastic corruption.

arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 22

Sculpting the Latent Space: Disentanglement with WAE-MMD and Programmable Priors

The paper introduces a new approach to learning disentangled representations by directly sculpting the aggregate posterior using the non‑parametric Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) and programmable priors. It demonstrates that traditional Variational Autoencoders and Adversarial Training consistently fail to enforce a factorized latent space, as quantified by the Latent Predictability Score (LPS). The proposed method achieves state‑of‑the‑art unsupervised statistical independence, a 70% reduction in entanglement, optional semi‑supervised semantic alignment, and precise shaping of the posterior without compromising reconstruction quality.

By Quentin Fruytier, Akshay Malhotra, Shahab Hamidi-Rad, Aditya Sant, Aryan Mokhtari, Sujay Sanghavi
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 3

A Ground-Truth Framework for Uncertainty Disentanglement with Posterior Risk

The paper introduces a ground‑truth framework for disentangling uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric components using sample‑conditional pointwise posterior risk. It evaluates current methods, finding that Spectral‑normalized Neural Gaussian Processes and Variational Latent Gaussian Processes best recover the ground‑truth uncertainty, while most methods align more closely with posterior variance and miss predictor bias. The study also explores the entanglement of estimated uncertainties and the impact of modeling choices, providing practical guidance and releasing 13 semi‑synthetic datasets for further validation.

By Frieder Wizgall, Georg Tirpitz, Moritz Seiler, Kerstin Ritter, B\'alint Mucs\'anyi
arXiv Statistics ML
Oct 8

Cluster-Robust Prediction-Powered Inference

arXiv:2610.09601v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data collection is often costly or logistically demanding, limiting both the questions researchers can pursue and how precisely they can answer them....

By David Broska, Michael Howes
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 3

Uncertainty-Aware Learning from Multi-Expert Interval Targets

The paper introduces a method for learning from multiple experts who provide interval labels, addressing both within‑label imprecision and between‑expert variation. It harmonizes diverse label vocabularies into a shared probabilistic space, retains individual intervals using a mixture of Beta distributions, and decomposes predictive uncertainty into components that are matched to their corresponding sources of label uncertainty. On sea‑ice concentration data, the approach achieves a 31% reduction in mean absolute error compared to hard‑label baselines and outperforms several aggregation and interval‑regression methods.

By Samira Alkaee Taleghan, Younghyun Koo, Andrew P. Barrett, Farnoush Banaei-Kashani