arXiv AI

Correcting Prompt Dependence in LLM Benchmarks: A Bayesian Hierarchical Model with Embedding-Space Clustering

arXiv:2510. 05709v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: LLM benchmarking metrics often misstate performance and uncertainty as they rely on two assumptions that frequently do not hold in practice: (i) a sufficient number of evaluations are available for classical inference, and (ii) test prompts are independent.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 15

Minimum Distance Summaries for Robust Neural Posterior Estimation

arXiv:2602. 09161v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables amortized Bayesian inference by first training a neural posterior estimator (NPE) on prior-simulator pairs, typically through low-dimensional summary statistics, which can then be cheaply reused for fast inference by querying it on new test observations.

By Sherman Khoo, Dennis Prangle, Song Liu, Mark Beaumont
arXiv Machine Learning
1d ago

Robust Evidential Learning Through Latent Consistency

The paper introduces CLEAR, a lightweight, task‑agnostic post‑hoc method that enhances evidential robustness in deep learning models without retraining. CLEAR uses held‑out calibration data to map the geometry of the model’s latent space, then generates perturbation views at inference to detect latent conflict. When high conflict is found, CLEAR selectively reduces evidential strength while preserving evidence for latent‑consistent inputs, achieving significant improvements in OOD and adversarial AUROC on ImageNet→CUB and running much faster than competing methods.

By Charmaine Barker, Daniel Bethell, Simos Gerasimou
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 11

Local Robustness Quantification for Naive Bayes Classifiers and Generative Forests: a General Approach

The paper introduces techniques for measuring the robustness of predictions made by two generative classifiers—naive Bayes classifiers and generative forests—whose underlying models are probabilistic graphical models. Robustness is defined as the degree to which the classifier’s distribution can be perturbed without altering its prediction, with perturbations explored via epsilon‑contamination, total variation distance, and chi‑squared divergence neighborhoods. Experiments on benchmark datasets show that the computed robustness values can serve as indicators of prediction trustworthiness and are compared against other existing indicators.

By Adri\'an Detavernier, Jasper De Bock
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 27

GRAPE: Gradient Refinement and Progress-Aware Exploitation for Query-Efficient High-Dimensional Bayesian Optimization

GRAPE is a two‑stage Bayesian optimization framework that first refines the local gradient posterior using a closed‑form acquisition function and then selects update directions by maximizing expected decrease conditioned on descent. The authors prove that the refinement stage monotonically reduces local uncertainty and that the progress‑aware direction converges to true steepest descent as the posterior sharpens. Empirical results show GRAPE achieves a 5.4× speedup on black‑box adversarial attacks and reduces final average regret by 3.8 log‑units on large language model prompt‑optimization tasks.

By Richard Cornelius Suwandi, Feng Yin