arXiv:2606. 04307v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bayesian models with finite symmetry - mixture models with exchangeable components, structural identification with closely-spaced modes - define posteriors that are invariant under a group of label permutations, creating redundant multimodality that degrades MCMC convergence diagnostics.
arXiv:2606. 04307v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In Bayesian mixture models and other exchangeable-component models, the posterior is invariant under permutation of component labels, creating m!
arXiv:2605. 30722v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose CerT-MCMC, a framework that equips learned-transport Markov chain Monte Carlo with automatic, rigorous convergence certificates.
arXiv:2606. 01078v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Transport MCMC trains a normalizing flow to precondition Metropolis--Hastings proposals, achieving high empirical efficiency on challenging posteriors; yet no prior work produces a numerically non-vacuous, rigorous spectral-gap bound for such samplers.
arXiv:2607. 03809v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Normalising flows provide a powerful variational family for approximate inference, yet individual architectures often fail to generalise across heterogeneous posterior geometries.
arXiv:2512. 04954v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present a novel technique for amortized posterior estimation using Normalizing Flows trained with likelihood-weighted importance sampling.
arXiv:2606. 19643v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Motivated by the privacy, sensitivity and sharing limitations of health data, we present a comprehensive pipeline for inference of Bayesian mixture models within a federated learning setting, i.
arXiv:2609.16373v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic certification of Bayesian neural networks lower-bounds the posterior probability that a model satisfies a verifier-defined safety propert...
arXiv:2607. 19379v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prior work has shown that transformers can perform exact Bayesian filtering within a fixed hypothesis class.
arXiv:2607. 16811v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Drift detectors that work tend not to explain themselves, and drift detectors that explain themselves tend to fail in high dimension.
arXiv:2410. 01244v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We introduce a novel Wasserstein-1 ($W_1$) path-space divergence for stochastic and deterministic dynamics and establish a Wasserstein Uncertainty Propagation (WUP) theorem that bounds the $W_1$ distance between terminal distributions by the proposed divergence, equivalently characterized by a weighted $L^2$ discrepancy between the underlying drifts and the $W_1$ distance between their initial measures.
arXiv:2609.00773v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: High-dimensional clustering is challenging when component distributions are both heavy-tailed and directionally asymmetric. We propose a deep skew-$t...
Hierarchical data is ubiquitous in the empirical sciences and is most commonly analyzed with generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs). Bayesian inference for GLMMs yields calibrated uncertainty...