arXiv Machine Learning

Adaptive Uncertainty Quantification on Simplicial Complexes with Conformalized Simplicial Neural Networks

The paper introduces CF‑SNN, a conformalized simplicial neural network framework that provides uncertainty quantification for predictions on simplicial complexes. It generates simultaneous prediction sets for multiple targets, guaranteeing that each set contains the true label with a user‑specified coverage probability. Experiments across diverse SC prediction tasks show that CF‑SNN achieves the desired coverage while keeping prediction sets small and informative.

arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 12

Do Deep Ensembles Actually Capture Uncertainty in Graph Neural Networks?

The paper examines whether deep ensembles effectively capture uncertainty in message‑passing graph neural networks. Across eight diverse datasets, ensembles only marginally outperform single models, mainly by reducing optimization noise rather than improving uncertainty estimates. The authors identify an epistemic collapse—independently trained networks converge to similar predictions—due to the smoothing bias of message passing, and provide a theoretical bound linking this collapse to graph topology and Dirichlet energy.

By Pedro C. Vieira, Viacheslav Borovitskiy, Pedro Ribeiro
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 3

Uncertainty-Aware Learning from Multi-Expert Interval Targets

The paper introduces a method for learning from multiple experts who provide interval labels, addressing both within‑label imprecision and between‑expert variation. It harmonizes diverse label vocabularies into a shared probabilistic space, retains individual intervals using a mixture of Beta distributions, and decomposes predictive uncertainty into components that are matched to their corresponding sources of label uncertainty. On sea‑ice concentration data, the approach achieves a 31% reduction in mean absolute error compared to hard‑label baselines and outperforms several aggregation and interval‑regression methods.

By Samira Alkaee Taleghan, Younghyun Koo, Andrew P. Barrett, Farnoush Banaei-Kashani
arXiv AI
Oct 16

Uncertainty Quantification in Pairwise Difference Learning for Classification

The paper introduces a pairwise difference learning (PDL) approach for classification, where a model predicts the outcome difference between two instances and uses these predictions to classify a query instance by averaging over training examples. It presents a meta‑learning technique tailored to this setting and tackles uncertainty quantification by decomposing total uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components, extending these measures to PDL. Extensive empirical studies evaluate both predictive accuracy and the model’s awareness of uncertainty.

By Mohamed Karim Belaid, Maximilian Rabus, Eyke H\"ullermeier
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Aug 19

A Unifying Relational Perspective on Expressive Lottery Tickets

The paper investigates how sparsity impacts the expressivity of graph neural networks, focusing on relational and temporal variants. It extends the Strong Expressive Lottery Ticket Hypothesis to multi-relational and temporal domains, proving that sufficiently large RGNNs contain sparse subnetworks that preserve 1‑RWL expressivity and providing a probabilistic bound for random pruning. Experiments validate the theoretical bounds, compare them to empirical results on synthetic data, and explore the relationship between pre‑training expressivity, optimization behavior, and prediction quality on temporal and molecular benchmarks.