arXiv Machine Learning

When Context Compensates for Sparse Event History: AlphaEarth for Spatio-Temporal Point-Process Forecasting

arXiv:2607. 01082v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Spatio-temporal point-process models must often generalise across space when local event histories are sparse.

arXiv AI

Aug 11

Dimensional Balance Improves Large Scale Spatiotemporal Prediction Performance

arXiv:2605. 18793v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate spatiotemporal pattern analysis is critical in fields such as urban traffic, meteorology, and public health monitoring.

By Jing Chen, Shixiang Pan, Yujie Fan, Haocheng Ye, Haitao Xu, Wenqiang Xu

rag safety

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 30

Hierarchical Spatio-Temporal Transformer for Coherent Emergency Department Forecasting

arXiv:2607. 27106v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Emergency Departments (EDs) are critical access points in healthcare systems, yet they face persistent pressure from unpredictable patient demand, seasonal surges, and non-urgent visits.

By Filipa Lino, B\'arbara Tavares, Carlos Santiago, Cl\'audia Soares, Manuel Marques

llms

arXiv AI

Jun 6

EpiEvolve: Self-Evolving Agents for Streaming Pandemic Forecasting under Regime Shifts

arXiv:2606. 05513v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Epidemic LLM forecasters are usually trained and evaluated as static supervised models, whereas operational pandemic forecasting is a streaming process in which labels arrive after predictions and disease regimes shift over time.

By Yiming Lu, Sihang Zeng, Zhengxu Tang, Max Lau, Fei Liu, Wei Jin

llms agents

arXiv Machine Learning

Sep 21

Probabilistic Forecasting of Business Process Executions with Neural Temporal Point Processes

arXiv:2609.21382v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Operators of service-based systems act on forecasts of how a running execution will continue, and such a forecast is actionable only if its reliability...

By Jiaxin Yuan, Daniela Grigori, Han van der Aa

llms

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 15

Auditable Context-Aware HFMD Forecasting with Structured LLM Agents

arXiv:2511. 23276v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Effective HFMD surveillance requires forecasts capturing both time-series patterns and contextual drivers such as school calendars, weather, and policy or surveillance reports.

By Joongwon Chae, Runming Wang, Chen Xiong, Gong Yunhan, Lian Zhang, Ji Jiansong, Dongmei Yu, Peiwu Qin

llms agents

arXiv AI

Aug 5

CastFSR: A Fast--Slow--Reflect Agentic Reasoning Framework for Context-Aware Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2608. 03031v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting is fundamental to decision-making in complex systems, where future dynamics are influenced not only by historical observations but also by evolving contextual features.

By Xiaoyu Tao, Mingyue Cheng, Bokai Pan, Chuang Jiang, Huanjian Zhang, Tian Gao, Yaguo Liu, Qi Liu, Enhong Chen

llms agents reinforcement-learning fine-tuning

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 19

Understanding Key Features of Time Series Foundation Models from Epidemic Forecasting

arXiv:2606. 19560v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Seasonal influenza infects millions of people and causes substantial morbidity and mortality in the United States each year, making accurate short-term forecasting a core public-health need.

By Alireza Jafari, Judy Fox, Geoffrey C. Fox, Madhav Marathe, Aniruddha Adiga

llms

arXiv Machine Learning

2d ago

When, Not How Much: Evaluating Time-Series Foundation Models on Sparse Events

arXiv:2609.39386v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pretrained time-series foundation models (TSFMs) are evaluated as forecasters of future values, yet for sparse series many decisions depend only on whi...

By Daniel Schoess, Florian von Wangenheim

benchmarks

arXiv AI

Jun 15

MP3: Multi-Period Pattern Pre-training for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

arXiv:2606. 13119v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Spatio-Temporal forecasting is crucial in diverse fields, such as transportation, climate, and energy.

By Lilan Peng, Yandi Liu, Qingren Yao, Chongshou Li, Tianrui Li

llms

arXiv AI

Sep 15

Beyond Numerical Time Series: A Unified Benchmark for Multimodal Forecasting with Heterogeneous Context

arXiv:2609.15087v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Most time series forecasting benchmarks remain numerical-centric and provide limited support for evaluating contextual information that shapes real-w...

By Peng Chen, Zhihao Zhuang, Hongzhou Chen, Junhao Huang, Aiping Yang, Mengsen Wu, Yiding Liu, Xilin Dai, Zewei Dong

llms multimodal benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 8

Trio: Learning Time-Series Forecasting with Temporal-Spatial-Sample Attention and Structural Causal Priors

arXiv:2606. 07291v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multivariate time-series forecasting requires models to reason over temporal dynamics, cross-variable dependencies, and historical input-output correspondences.

By Tao Chen, Yexu Zhou, Zhi Gong, Hengwei He, Hongda Li, Zhewei Chen, Dongjing Wang, Xin Zhang, Decheng Liu, Chunlei Peng, Zheng Chen, Wenyue Ding

benchmarks

arXiv AI

Jun 12

MP3: Multi-Period Pattern Pre-training forSpatio-Temporal Forecasting

arXiv:2606. 13119v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Spatio-Temporal forecasting is crucial in diverse fields, such as transportation, climate, and energy.

By Lilan Peng, Yandi Liu, Qingren Yao, Chongshou Li, Tianrui Li

llms

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