The paper introduces Regret-Weighted Payoff Sampling (RWPS), a budgeted estimator that selectively simulates only payoff-matrix cells relevant to a Nash equilibrium and uses a surrogate model for the remaining entries. RWPS provides an instance-dependent error bound weighted by the opponent’s equilibrium mixture and a coverage result guaranteeing that, once the deviation-relevant set is simulated, surrogate error does not affect either player’s regret. Experiments on three 21×21 general-sum games, including an asymmetric Colonel Blotto, show that RWPS achieves four to six times tighter bounds than previous methods and outperforms other sampling strategies on the CyGym and ANSG cyber simulators at low budgets.
By Michael Lanier, David Farmer, Yevgeniy Vorobeychik
arXiv:2609. 29140v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Repeated evaluation can estimate a benchmark score accurately while still requiring replication to certify narrow uncertainty.
By Yezhou Cheng, Runjia Du, Zeming Liu, Qibai Chen, Hang Lyu, Yilan Wei, Yankai Zeng, Bojun Lin
Repeated evaluation can estimate a benchmark score accurately while still requiring replication to certify narrow uncertainty. We characterize that requirement on a fixed grid of $M$ tasks with $L$ binary paths per task under the hard budget $(M+t)K$, where each path costs at most $K$ responses or episodes.
arXiv:2609.38914v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Evaluating interactive agents is expensive. Agent behavior is stochastic, so reliability must be measured over repeated trials, but failures are rare a...
By Priyanath Maji, Spandan Ghose Chowdhury
arXiv:2606. 15600v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Cardinality-estimation (CE) research ranks estimators by q-error, yet it is well known that q-error is an imperfect proxy for query-plan quality.
By Madhulatha Mandarapu, Sandeep Kunkunuru
arXiv:2605.20854v3 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: We provide the first regret analysis of ReMax in stochastic multi-armed bandits. Originally introduced for reinforcement learning, ReMax is motivat...
By Bingkui Tong, Junpei Komiyama, Soichiro Nishimori, Paavo Parmas
arXiv:2608. 14761v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: At a finite public-chance cut, counterfactual regret minimization (CFR) must choose how many outcomes to evaluate before each regret update.
By Jiaxing Guo, Lei Ye
arXiv:2607. 09706v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Language models turn a worded situation into a numeric plan, and the dominant pipelines (NL4Opt, OptiMUS, ORLM, OR-LLM-Agent) commit to a single objective and point-valued coefficients, then solve once.
By Suyash Mishra
arXiv:2607. 18960v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Procuring supervised fine-tuning (SFT) data forces a buyer to decide, before any downstream training, whether a candidate corpus is worth acquiring.
By Arther Tian, Alex Ding, Simon Wu, Aaron Chan
arXiv:2607. 02255v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Memory for a long-horizon LLM agent is a contract about what each future decision is allowed to see.
By Xiangchen Cheng, Yunwei Jiang, Jianwen Sun, Zizhen Li, Chuanhao Li, Xiangcheng Cao, Yihao Liu, Fanrui Zhang, Li Jin, Kaipeng Zhang
arXiv:2608. 09450v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Betting-based sequential tests and Blackwell approachability are linked by a rate-explicit reduction through support-function residuals.
By Jinze Zhao
arXiv:2606. 29654v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-agent deliberation among LLMs can improve reasoning, but deployment requires deciding when the current answer is reliable enough to act on and when it should be escalated to human review.
By Mengdie Flora Wang, Haochen Xie, Guanghui Wang, Devin Zhang, Jae Oh Woo