arXiv Machine Learning

Approximate full conformal prediction in an RKHS

arXiv:2601. 13102v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Full conformal prediction is a framework that implicitly formulates distribution-free confidence prediction regions for a wide range of estimators.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 1

On Optimal Data Splitting for Split Conformal Prediction

arXiv:2606. 31600v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction and its variants, including the split conformal prediction, provide a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction intervals or sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees.

By Sayan Das, Bahram Yaghooti, Todd A. Kuffner, Soumendra N. Lahiri
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 3

Set-Preserving Calibration from Conformal P-Values to E-Values

arXiv:2606. 03600v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Standard conformal prediction (CP) procedures are typically formulated in terms of p-values, but reliance on p-values alone limits flexibility, for example, when combining dependent evidence across models or data splits.

By Nabil Alami, Jad Zakharia, Souhaib Ben Taieb
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 21

Isotonic Conformal Prediction

arXiv:2607. 16675v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A point prediction that is well calibrated on average can still be systematically biased conditional on its own value, undermining its use in downstream decision-making.

By Daniel Bensimon, Sean Xiang Yu, Eric D. Kolaczyk, Archer Y. Yang
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 11

Projected random forests and conformal prediction of circular data

arXiv:2410. 24145v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We apply conformal prediction techniques to regression problems with circular responses, producing prediction sets with adaptive arc length and finite-sample coverage guarantees for any circular predictive model under the assumption of data exchangeability.

By Paulo C. Marques F., Rinaldo Artes, Helton Graziadei